Too slow, too little, too late – a UN analysis shows that national climate protection plans are not enough to achieve the 1.5 degree target. UN Secretary-General Guterres is sounding the alarm and calling for more ambitious goals.
A United Nations analysis of the climate protection plans submitted by states comes to a sobering conclusion: the world is far from stopping global warming at 1.5 degrees. “The report shows that governments, taken together, are taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis,” said the head of the UN Climate Secretariat, Simon Stiell.
The world climate conference in Dubai in December must be a “turning point”. “Governments must not only agree on stronger climate protection measures, but also show exactly how they want to implement them,” said Stiell.
The international community has agreed on the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times in order to avert the most catastrophic consequences such as more droughts, storms, floods and heat waves.
Guterres: World cannot get climate crisis under control
UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed alarm: “The world is failing to get the climate crisis under control.” The international community continues to deviate “massively” from the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and thus preventing the worst climate catastrophe.
Referring to the evaluation, Guterres said that the national climate plans were “in stark contrast to the science.” An inch of progress will not be enough, said Guterres. “It’s time for a supernova of climate efforts in every country, every city, every sector.” The deadlines for achieving climate neutrality would have to be accelerated so that industrialized countries come as close as possible to the goal by 2040 and emerging countries by 2050.
The UN Secretary General called for a rapid exit from fossil fuels. More ambitious national climate targets are needed. Governments would have to provide the necessary money, support and partnerships. The industrialized countries also have to restore trust by keeping their financing commitments.
Efforts work too late
After recent UN analysis of national declarations of intent The greenhouse gases responsible for global warming would no longer increase after the end of the current decade. However, they would not decline nearly as much as would be necessary.
Even if all the plans were implemented, the global greenhouse gas emissions emitted in 2030 would only be two percent below the 2019 level. This means that the peak value of emissions would still be measured in this decade – but for those in Paris decided climate goals far too late.
Claims and reality diverge
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in order to stop global warming at 1.5 degrees as desired, emissions in 2030 would have to be 43 percent lower than in 2019. Compared to 2010, the climate-damaging emissions in 2030 would still be 8, according to the calculation. 8 percent higher. This forecast has only improved slightly since last year.
The fact that states often do not implement their own climate protection plans at all or only implement them slowly is not taken into account in this analysis.
World climate summit in Dubai in December
This year the United Arab Emirates is hosting the COP28 global climate summit in Dubai. The meeting will take place from November 30th to December 12th. The aim is to work together worldwide to limit global warming. So far, the earth has warmed by around 1.2 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial period from 1850 to 1900.
In addition to more than 140 heads of state and high-ranking government representatives, at least 70,000 participants are expected in Dubai. One of the focal points of the negotiations is the establishment of a damage and loss fund to support poorer countries that are particularly suffering from climate-related destruction.