Ukrainian offensive actions: “The Ukrainians are making good progress”

The Ukrainians have broken through the first Russian lines, says military expert Lange. However, Russia benefits from its air sovereignty and well-developed positions. Nevertheless, there are signs that the Ukrainians are making good progress.

tagesschau.de: There is movement on the front in Ukraine – there are reports of minor Ukrainian gains and Ukrainian losses. However, there has not yet been a major central advance. Is this the counter-offensive now?

Nico Long: Yes, this is the counteroffensive. It started some time ago. It is now also visible through the advances with armored personnel carriers and main battle tanks of modern Western design, which Germany, among others, also supplied.

But this counter-offensive doesn’t have to go the way we might imagine. To be honest, we have no experience with it at all.

“Slow and careful approach required”

tagesschau.de: How are the struggles going so far and what is happening at the moment?

Longing: Russia was able to expand its defensive positions – partly because we delivered armored personnel carriers, main battle tanks and other things too late. Ukraine is therefore confronted with huge, very dense minefields, as well as defensive positions with concrete blocks and other protective measures by the Russians.

On the other hand, if you want to proceed with an offensive, you have to do it with caution. Ukraine tries at night with mine-sweeping vehicles ahead and infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks behind. But in smaller formations and not by shouting “Hurrah” as some expected and rushing at the Russian positions with all your strength in one place.

Ukraine has carried out these attacks in several places in the Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts, partially breaking through the first line of defense. But there is still a long way to go and this requires a slow and careful approach at this stage.

And whether there will be something like a real main thrust, where Ukraine will then attack with massive forces, we do not know at this point in time. So far we see several axes along the front line where Ukraine is attacking.

“Russian terror against civilians pays off”

tagesschau.de: What is the Russian resistance like?

Longing: Unfortunately, terror against civilians is paying off for Russia. That is the main problem at this stage. That happened again last night, in Krywyj Rih.

Russia fires cruise missiles, rockets and drones at civilian targets. Ukraine is therefore forced to use the air defense systems to protect people in the cities. But Russia is conducting airstrikes with helicopters, planes and drones on the front lines against the advancing Ukrainian troops. And there Ukraine does not have enough air defense resources.

We’ll see how the Russians behave if Ukraine manages to break through the defense lines. It’s possible that things may seem slow at first, and then suddenly, like last autumn, there will be a lot of movement in this war. Ukraine is working towards this. But that cannot be said at this point in time.

Ukrainian losses ‘very limited’

tagesschau.de: What have the western weapon systems achieved so far? Pictures of destroyed Leopard tanks are celebrated in Russian media. How is that to be assessed?

Longing: The western armored personnel carriers and main battle tanks are very good. They offer more protection than the systems Ukraine had before. And they make sure the crews survive. It was clear that there would be casualties. No one expected you to drive through there with a couple of tanks and then win the war.

For offensive operations you need a superiority of three to one, or five to one in particularly fortified positions – because you have to reckon with casualties.

The Russians now keep presenting images of the same vehicles from different angles, pretending that there are a lot of destroyed tanks. In truth there are few. If that’s all the Ukrainians’ losses so far during the counter-operation, then it’s very limited. And from this one can actually conclude that Ukraine is making good progress.

“The decisive test is still pending”

tagesschau.de: How do you assess the successes of the Ukrainian offensive so far?

Longing: Ukraine is forced to attack without having established an air superiority. But this very calm approach by Ukraine, where so far only a few forces have been used for the counteroffensive, where there is no communication – this shows a high level of self-confidence on the part of the Ukrainians. I have the feeling that the Ukrainians dare to break through the Russian defenses. And they have a plan for this, which they are now working through calmly.

The front runs in the form of a semicircle – and Ukraine has the advantages of the so-called internal lines. This means that it has the shorter routes and, if the front is breached at one point, could react relatively quickly and bring more forces there. That would be more difficult for Russia because Russia has to cover ever greater distances on the outer lines.

Of course, it is also possible that Ukraine is currently using deception maneuvers or maneuvers to tie down Russian forces. It’s good and right that we don’t know.

My first tentative assessment is that the Ukrainians are making progress in many areas, but the crucial test is yet to come: whether the main line of defense can be breached. Given the way things have gone and the resources deployed so far, I am optimistic that they will pull through. Where exactly that will be and when that will happen, I don’t want to speculate about that.

“Russia won’t do much for that to oppose have”

tagesschau.de: They say that only a few Ukrainian forces have been deployed so far. Can you explain that in more detail?

Longing: Ukraine has nine brigades with western-designed armored personnel carriers and main battle tanks, two more with Soviet-designed ones. Those are powerful forces. So far, however, only a quarter of Ukraine’s well-trained and equipped forces have been deployed. It is good that Ukraine still retains its strength in case a breakthrough is achieved. Because only then can she really start to liberate the areas.

The Russian side, on the other hand, has already brought a large number of its reserves to the front line, including from the area flooded by the breach of the dam. That was probably also the Russian idea: to flood the area in order to be able to withdraw the forces there and then be able to strengthen the front in the south.

All this means that if such a breakthrough really succeeds, then Russia will not have much to counter it.

The interview was conducted by Christoph Schwanitz, tagesschau.de