It is some of the best units of the Russian army that Moscow has sent into the occupied Kherson region in recent months to prevent the Ukrainian army from liberating it: such as the 76th Parachutist Guards Division.
But even elite troops could not prevent the Ukrainian army, after its major offensive in the Kharkov region, from now also making great gains in the region of Kherson and advancing on the city of the same name: a city with a pre-war population of 290,000 inhabitants and, apart from Mariupol, the only Ukrainian city Big city that Russian troops could bring under their control in this war. Like Mariupol, Kherson has great strategic importance: as a port city on the Dnieper just before its mouth in the Black Sea, controlling a route to the occupied Crimea.
On October 4 alone, the Ukrainians were able to liberate the important village of Davydiv Brid and 18 other villages in the region, and apparently Advance 25 kilometers, because Russian units were destroyed or retreated in haste. “The situation in the south is critical”, admitted a war reporter from the Russian radio and television company. “So far we are losing people and territory.”
Apparently, the Russian army has not built a second line of defense
This is due to several factors, such as too few Russian soldiers for too long a front. A Russian military blogger (a journalist or military often working with Russian units) reported, a front line of 20 kilometers needs at least 500 soldiers to defend against an attacker – in fact only a third of them are available. Overall, the front in the Cherson region is around 200 kilometers long. Analyst Kirill Mikhailov of the independent Conflict Intelligence Team according to The rapid Ukrainian advance suggests that the Russians had not set up a second defensive line for dozens of kilometers behind the line of defense that had been breached by the Ukrainians.
Why are the Ukrainians advancing now? Part of the answer: Because the Ukrainians first thoroughly prepared the offensive here, above all with the destruction of three important bridges and attacks with satellite-controlled USHimars– Missiles and similar English systems on Russian ammunition depots, command posts and barracks, artillery and radar positions. The Ukrainians get their coordinates from pro-Ukrainian informers and the secret services by Americans and English. For the Ukrainians, on the other hand, time is pressing before autumn and winter make offensive actions significantly more difficult.
Although Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has ordered the mobilization, the consequences have not yet been felt on the front in Ukraine. According to the Russian military blogger, the soldiers of the 126th coastal protection brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet deployed in the Cherson region have had to hold out without replacement since March.
“The thin, undermanned front line, together with effective Ukrainian offensive operations, partly explains the rapid rate of Russian collapse,” analyzed the Institute for War Studies in Washington. In addition, if the war continued, “Even the most elite Russian military forces are increasingly weakened“.
Ukraine has suffered severe losses in the Cherson region in particular
Of course, the fact that the Ukrainians have been suffering heavy losses in the Cherson region for months fades into the background over the success stories. An officer described the New York Times still at the end of Septemberthat hundreds of soldiers were killed or wounded in the – unsuccessful – attack on a Russian-held village alone.
The city of Cherson itself has long been a target for the Ukrainians: on Wednesday night, for example, one hit Himars-missile in the city center the hotel Ninel, which allegedly houses officers of the Russian secret service FSB and other Russian officials were accommodated.
Of course, a Ukrainian attack on Cherson itself would be much more difficult, where, according to the analyst Kirill Mikhailov of the independent Conflict Intelligence Team, “enough experienced, strong Russian units” are still stationed. The land in front of Cherson offers little cover for an advance.
Putin’s spokesman claimed on Wednesday that the region officially annexed by Russia on Tuesday will be recaptured despite the withdrawal. But more critical than such statements for the Ukrainians are initially ongoing Russian attacks with cruise missiles, rockets and Iranian drones on Ukrainian cities, for example on Bila Tserkva 80 kilometers south of the capital Kyiv.