Ukraine’s EU application: candidate for membership in a hurry?

Before the decision on Ukraine’s application for membership, the assessments of the EU countries on this issue differed widely. In peacetime, Ukraine would probably have no chance of membership.

It could be very quick now. In Brussels it is expected that the Commission will give its assessment of Ukraine’s application for membership this week. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to Kyiv at the weekend to clarify open questions.

She then praised the government’s progress, but saw a need for reform in the areas of the rule of law and the fight against corruption. Even if the Commission’s recommendation is positive, the heads of state and government must decide. Ukraine’s proposal will be discussed at the summit in a week.

Ukrainians on a promotional tour

Then a unanimous vote is required. Because every vote counts, Volodymyr Zelenskyj has sent his closest collaborators to Europe’s capitals on a promotional tour. In the European Parliament in Strasbourg last week, Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefantschuk said he didn’t want to hide the fact that he was pursuing a clear goal when he traveled through Europe: “We need candidate status! Our people need to hear that from the EU, as a message that our actions are not in vain.”

After his speech, MPs from almost all factions rushed towards him, everyone wanted a selfie with him. MEPs support Ukraine. The Commission also helped fill out the necessary application forms – a highly unusual process, according to diplomatic circles.

Member countries divided on accession question

In the member states, the assessments still differ widely. While most Eastern European countries don’t want to waste time, some countries are moving too fast. Spokesman for the skeptics is Emmanuel Macron. The French president doesn’t think it’s a good idea to negotiate accession in the middle of a war. “Even if we were to give Ukraine candidate status tomorrow,” Macron predicted in a Europe Day speech on May 9, everyone knows for sure that the process will take “several decades, in fact.”

For a long time now, France’s President has been warning his partners that it is better to improve the EU’s ability to act than to subject it to new stress tests through enlargement. But Macron also sees the danger that countries like Ukraine could drift away without being connected to the EU. That’s why he proposes a kind of privileged partnership, a “European political community” open not only to Ukraine, but also to Georgia, Moldova and the Western Balkans.

Status between inside and outside?

The fact that the Union should offer the many countries pushing into the EU an option beyond full membership, a status between being in and staying out, has been discussed for more than 20 years. The Eastern Partnership was a step in that direction.

But Macron goes further. He wants to offer the countries significantly more networking and cooperation in the areas of security, energy supply, transport, the development of infrastructure and also the issue of freedom of movement for people. Such a community is also open to countries “that have left the EU,” he added in passing. Since only one country has left the EU so far, this could be seen as a taunt against Macron’s favorite opponent Boris Johnson.

The rest was serious. The French President is looking for supporters for his plan. He wants to gain time and take the pressure off the highly emotional debate about Ukraine as a candidate country. Chancellor Olaf Scholz was not averse to an initial reaction: Macron’s proposal was “a very interesting proposal to deal with the great challenge that we have”.

But what does that mean? Will Scholz speak out for or against candidate status on his planned trip to Kyiv? President Zelenskyj has set the bar high. He expects Scholz to personally support Ukraine’s EU membership, the Ukrainian president said on ZDF. SPD party leader Lars Klingbeil did not want to predict how the chancellor would decide when he was in Brussels for talks earlier this week.

As SPD party leader, Klingbeil became clearer: “We want them in the European Union.” Ukraine fights for European values. And that’s why it’s good to show the country a way into the Union now. However, Klingbeil also pointed out that the Copenhagen criteria must be followed, “they must not be undermined at any point”.

The Copenhagen Criteria have been the conditions for admission to the club since 1993. A functioning constitutional state with the protection of minorities, a transparent market economy – even countries that want to become a candidate for accession must first provide the basis for this. From the point of view of several EU countries, however, Ukraine is a long way off.

“Corruption at the Highest Level”

Before the war, the country was way down on Transparency International’s corruption list – 122nd out of 180 countries. The list reflects the level of corruption perceived by citizens and is seen as a reaction to the rampant oligarch economy.

In the Pandora Papers, the investigative research with leaked data from worldwide tax havens, there are many Ukrainians, including President Zelenskyj and his comrades-in-arms with shell companies. At the end of 2021, the European Court of Auditors published a special report with a disastrous verdict. The EU has supported Ukraine for 20 years, with 15 billion euros since 2014 alone, so that political reforms can be implemented. But the influence of oligarchs and corrupt state officials has not diminished. The EU aid is simply “ineffective against corruption at the highest level”.

Some countries don’t follow the rules

Not only the Dutch Prime Minister Marc Rutte is critical of the problems with corruption and the rule of law. He wants “no short cuts” on the way to membership. Others also remember that during the last eastward enlargement, countries were admitted which – like Bulgaria – did not comply with the rules or – like Hungary – later used EU funds for self-enrichment of the ruling political class.

In peacetime, Ukraine would probably not have had a chance of becoming a candidate country. But the war changed things. With the country struggling to survive as a nation, who among the leaders will oppose candidate status in such a situation? The question will arise in a week’s time at the EU summit in Brussels.