Decrees signed
Putin in crisis mode: What martial law means for the annexed territories – and for Russia itself
Sees himself increasingly cornered: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin
© Ilya Pitalev / Sputnik / AFP
The Kremlin still does not speak of “war”. However, martial law is now in force in the areas in eastern Ukraine illegally annexed by Russia. The step does not come as a surprise – but it shows that Commander-in-Chief Putin is switching to crisis mode. Even in your own country.
“Martial Law”. In English, Moscow’s latest level of escalation sounds even more threatening. In English this means: Russia has declared martial law – for the first time since World War II. At least for the four annexed areas in eastern Ukraine. But it depends on the legal subtleties. A state of war does not mean war. Because there is still no talk of that in the Kremlin.
The law, which the Kremlin chief Putin referred to on Wednesday, is around 20 years old and has never been applied before. It is intended solely in the event that Russia “feels aggression or ‘imminent threat of aggression’,” Reuters said.
But the Kremlin is not only expanding its power in the annexed regions. A second decree signed by the supreme commander guarantees the regime more far-reaching powers at home. In short: the Kremlin is gradually switching to crisis mode.
The effects of martial law on the annexed territories in Ukraine
“Martial law essentially means the suspension of normal management of the economy and the rule of law,” Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Washington Post.
From the Kremlin’s point of view, the Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhia and Donetsk regions irrevocably belong to Russia. However, the occupiers do not have nearly complete control of the regions – which does not prevent Moscow from declaring a state of war for their entire territory. This shows once again that the power Moscow is flaunting is more fake than real.
Nevertheless, the people in the occupied territories should have woken up on Thursday to a new, even more repressive world:
- mobilization: When the state of war comes into force, the Kremlin automatically reserves the right to general or at least a new partial mobilization. For the former, however, the Kremlin would have to finally say goodbye to its term “military special operations” and ultimately publicly admit its own failure. Since, according to Moscow, the partial mobilization has now been completed (Putin is forcing a total of more than 200,000 other Russians to attack the neighboring country) and has already been extended to the occupied areas, this measure is unlikely, at least for the time being. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible. The bottom line is that Ukrainians could be forced to take up arms against their own compatriots. Measures to “meet the needs of the Russian armed forces” and “territorial defense” are how this horror scenario is described in the decree. In fact, it is against the Geneva Convention to force civilians to join the occupying power’s armed forces. Only, as is well known, the Kremlin does not sell itself as an occupier, but as the legitimate government.
- restrictions for residents: In addition, the decree now officially allows the occupiers to intervene massively in the freedom of the population. According to Russian human rights lawyer Pavel Chikov, the new laws not only provide for the establishment of checkpoints and vehicle checks. People can be imprisoned for up to 30 days, curfews imposed, private property confiscated. The occupiers could also force the population to rebuild destroyed buildings or even to work in the armaments industry. The sale of certain goods may also be restricted or prohibited.
- forced resettlement: The deportation of people is now theoretically possible, says Tschikow. Already on Wednesday, Vladimir Saldo, the administrator of the Kherson region appointed by the Kremlin, announced that up to 60,000 people would be “evacuated” from the Kherson region and that the administration would be transferred to the other side of the Dnipro River. In Kyiv this was called “propaganda”. “A rather primitive tactic, considering that the Ukrainian armed forces do not shoot at Ukrainian cities, only Russian terrorists do that,” wrote the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Ermakin, on his Telegram channel. In September, the United States accused Russia of forcibly relocating between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainians. Human rights groups have repeatedly claimed that Russia is forcibly assimilating the deported Ukrainian children.
Step by step: Putin puts all of Russia in war mode
However, the restrictive measures do not only apply to the annexed areas in Ukraine. “Furthermore, in the current situation, I consider it necessary to transfer additional powers to the leaders of all Russian regions,” Putin said at a session of his Security Council. Different “reaction levels” apply to 26 regions, including Moscow. In concrete terms, this means that the state of war applies to all of Russia – albeit in a “weakened” form.
According to the NYT, the Kremlin’s aim is to gradually put the Russian economy into war mode. According to the decree, local authorities in Crimea and in the border regions of Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov may “mobilize the economy to meet the needs of the army”. “Putin needs to prepare the country for much harder times and mobilize resources,” Russian political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya told the US newspaper.
The restrictions in the rest of Russia are not to be equated with the state of war. Nevertheless, Putin’s decree can be used, among other things, to completely suspend the activities of parties, public organizations (e.g. trade unions) and religious groups. Also, the NYT reports, governors now have the power to enact entry and exit restrictions. The measures go so far that Moscow apparently felt the need for temporary appeasement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov countered fears that Russia would now close its borders to its own citizens. That was not planned, he told the state news agency Ria Nowosti. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin also emphasized that martial law in the four annexed areas will not “currently” affect everyday life in the capital.
“In general, this all looks less like a struggle with an external enemy and more like an attempt to thwart the maturing revolution within the country,” Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter in exile, wrote on Telegram, according to the Washington Post .
“What we’re seeing is a kind of ‘boiling frog’ strategy, where you don’t announce every big step that might overwhelm the Russian public, but the idea is to gradually introduce those steps,” Bergmann told the US newspaper .
Sources: Reuters; “New York Times“; “Washington Post“, dpa