the Ukrainian economy according to a forecast by the International Monetary Fund as a result of Russia’s war collapse dramatically. This year, gross domestic product will fall by ten percent – and even this forecast is based on the assumption “an early solution to the war and significant help from donors.” The IMF warns that as long as the war lasts, the situation will be confusing and any forecast uncertain. “There are one severe recession and high reconstruction costs to be expected, coupled with a humanitarian crisis.”
According to the IMF, domestic demand will collapse due to the war, destruction and refugee movements. Therefore, imports would fall sharply. Exports would also shrink due to broken supply chains, lower production capacity and closed airports and ports. In the port city of Mariupol, which was surrounded by Russian troops and through which half of all exports have so far been shipped, there has been major damage. Many roads and bridges were damaged across the country.
If the war continues and agricultural activity is disrupted in the spring, it could further weaken exports and growth and threaten food supplies, the IMF warned.