After “successes” in the offensive against the Russian occupying forces, the Ukrainian president swears his country to victory. But the losses are high.
For days, Ukrainian armed forces have proudly raised the blue and yellow flag in the small towns liberated from the Russian occupation. Kiev speaks of six villages in the Donetsk region and one place in the Zaporizhia region. More than 90 square kilometers in total.
These are the first psychologically important “successes” that a visibly tired President Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced in a video message in Kiev. He promises fiercely: “We believe in victory, it will come!”
Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, was unusually subdued when, after a champagne reception on Russia’s national holiday on Monday, he visited and honored injured soldiers in the hospital. He refrained from standard phrases such as “Victory will be ours” or “Everything is going according to plan”. Rather, Putin repeatedly bombs residential buildings in Ukraine. At least ten people died in a rocket attack in the southeastern city of Kryvyi Rih.
Selenskyj speaks of a “tough fight”
But Zelenskyj has been making it clear for days that neither missiles nor the flood caused by the destruction of the dam in the contested Cherson region will deter Ukraine from its major offensive. According to reports, the main part has not yet begun. Zelenskyy would also like to have had more weapons from the West, including F-16 fighter jets. But he said the offensive could not wait months. Selenskyj speaks of a “tough fight” – also because rain is currently softening the soil. Heavy military equipment hardly makes any headway in this way.
After days of offensive actions by the Ukrainian military, the initiative clearly lies with Kiev; Moscow and the Russian army are on the defensive. According to experts, however, Kiev’s troops have not yet advanced to the Russians’ main line of defense. Ukraine is trying to use tactical operations in the mined area to advance to the well-secured Russian lines, to find weak points in order to break in there.
“The Russian military remains dangerous”
Experts at the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) have determined that there has been no talk of a breakthrough so far. The Ukrainian advances would also be made more difficult by the Russian dominance in the airspace. The Ukrainians suffered losses against some “of the best-prepared Russian forces,” according to the ISW analysis. “The Russian military remains dangerous and Ukrainian troops face an uphill battle.” Nevertheless, the front – according to Russian information 815 kilometers long – is not secured to the same extent everywhere.
Ukraine is preparing for a long struggle – like Russia. According to Russian President Putin, Kiev has already lost a quarter of the weapons supplied by the West and suffered ten times as many losses as the Russian troops. And the Ministry of Defense in Moscow only reports successes and claims to have fended off all attacks. Russian field commanders and military bloggers, on the other hand, speak of heavy fighting – with casualties on both sides.
The head of the Wagner mercenary unit, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been at odds with the Ministry of Defense for months and has nothing but ridicule for the authorities’ announced gigantic number of kills. When Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the shooting down of eight Leopard battle tanks a week ago, he only commented sarcastically: “Even Baron Munchausen turns green with envy.” If things continue like this, Russia will soon be fighting aliens.
In the meantime, there are actually the first confirmed kills of leopards. Nevertheless, it is too early for a real assessment of what is happening in the fight, says Prigozhin. The reserves of the Ukrainians are large and their attack potential is far from exhausted. “In a month, a month and a half or two, we can see if they’ve gotten a result or not,” he said on Tuesday.
All in all, the Russians see themselves getting through the first week of the offensive better than they feared. Field commander Alexander Khodakowski, who was fighting on the Russian side, contradicted Moscow and confirmed the first successes of the Ukrainians at the front, stressed that the Russians had managed to prevent a breakthrough. “The fighting of the last few days has shown that if we persist, the enemy will become frustrated and break in.”
However, the ultra-nationalist and former intelligence officer Igor Girkin, known as Strelkov, warned against euphoria. The offensive is just beginning. “The enemy deployed about a third of its strategic reserves,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. The Russian leadership will be forced to mobilize again by autumn at the latest, unless a military defeat in the Zaporizhia region makes it necessary to replenish their own strength in the summer, Girkin said.
Ukraine demands more guns
However, Ukraine has made it clear that it needs further support and, above all, supplies, even in the face of initial losses, for example in the case of the tanks supplied by Germany, in order to be successful. Nobody says that as clearly as Kiev’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk, who was previously ambassador to Germany. He had asked for a tenfold increase in aid. Every country should spend one percent of its economic output on Ukrainian military aid. In the case of Germany alone, that would be more than 35 billion euros.
“The Ukrainian army most urgently needs a lot more Western battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other armored vehicles,” he told the Tagesspiegel. “Every Leopard 2 is literally worth its weight in gold for the decisive offensive.” According to him, the Bundeswehr could provide more than the 18 units already delivered from its stock of more than 300. The current number could be “tripled without endangering Germany’s ability to defend itself”. Melnyk asked for “another 60 Marder armored personnel carriers” for Ukraine.
Selenskyj recently also demanded significantly more than the two Patriot anti-aircraft systems previously delivered – at best 50 units. The military in Kiev openly say that many Ukrainian towns would already look like the completely shelled cities of Bakhmut and Mariupol if there weren’t anti-aircraft defenses. The aim now is to start a Patriot coalition in addition to the planned fighter jet alliance for 48 F-16s demanded by Kiev. The country wants to regain sovereignty over the airspace and thus an essential security guarantee.