Press
A first hit by a US long-range missile in Crimea: Ukraine is using Atacms again. There is reason to celebrate – but it is very restrained.
Cape Tarchankut – “When thousands of splinters fall over an anti-aircraft battery, nothing is left,” said Thomas Theiner last September World told. The former Italian artilleryman commented on the possible impact of an Atacms rocket (Army Tactical Missile Systems) with cluster munitions. Something like this has apparently happened again. Newsweek reports, citing various sources, that the Ukraine Crimea has probably been attacked again with Atacms – possibly even with cluster munitions again. Wladimir Putin has now lost an S-300 anti-aircraft battery with the latest attack. There is also talk of a strike against Russian positions in the occupied southeast of Ukraine daily News be done using the Atacms.
Newsweek refers to the X channel (formerly Twitter), which publishes the claim of the Atacms attack in Crimea – and although there is no confirmation of the type of weapon used, reads Newsweek quite euphoric; like last fall, when Ukraine dealt a major blow to the Russian Air Force for the first time; even the The New Zurich Times was ignited by the topic: “Blistering flames, huge clouds of smoke, the outline of a combat helicopter against the reddened night sky: The video images of the inferno at the military airport in the Russian-occupied city of Berdyansk on October 17, 2023 immediately made it clear that Russia’s air force had suffered a serious blow . It was quickly confirmed that a new weapon had been used here: Ukraine had fired American-type Atacms rockets for the first time.”
“Putin’s nightmare”: The modern Atacms stands for the principle of hope in Ukraine
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden pushed through the supply of this weapon. Ukraine will be capable of long-distance travel because the USA has delivered the current type with a range of up to 300 kilometers. “With this weapon, Putin’s nightmare comes true,” was the headline World in September, when the first batch of rockets had probably just reached the front – those of the older type with a range of less than 200 kilometers. It stands for the principle of hope, for which the defenders against Russia’s terror seem to use every straw, because the situation for Ukraine is more of a nightmare. Even if a battery were to be destroyed in Crimea, that would be a drop in the ocean, even though it is World again reacted exuberantly: “All Russian facilities are in acute danger,” she wants to know.
Time online is more realistic – if not downright pessimistic: In their opinion, it would provide the right weapon – but a year too late: “There is more hope in the rocket than it can fulfill,” writes author Alexander Eydlin. In fact, the number of Atacms delivered is apparently clear. The first batch last fall described this daily News as a “very small number”, now reports Time citing the New York Times of 100 additional rockets delivered – the advantage of which is that they can be fired from the Himars rocket launchers already used in Ukraine.
Impact in Crimea: No tactical value without the use of ground troops
In the meantime, the USA is said to have also delivered the modern variant with a range of up to 300 kilometers and GPS navigation, possibly due to the now significant Russian preponderance. This definitely gives Ukraine operational opportunities, but on the other hand that is also an argument Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Cautious: With Ukraine’s ability to operate over longer distances, it is simply pushing Russian airfields, depots or staging areas further back into the Russian heartland: A missile attack without the follow-up of ground troops would therefore not bring tactical success in the long term.
Even the current attack on the air defenses in Crimea is perhaps a successful but definitely unique event – unlike the constant attack on the Black Sea Fleet with the help of drones, which has made Ukraine a regional naval power. “Far more threatening, however, is the war of attrition that Ukraine has been waging with increasing vehemence for months, far behind the contact lines. And the attrition is likely to increase with the new delivery of American precision Atacms missiles with a range of 300 kilometers,” the World Formulated in blue at the end of last year. There is still little sign of this.
Time is ticking for Russia – but the clock could be ticking for the Crimean Bridge
The big bang may actually be imminent. A thorn in Ukraine’s side is still the Crimean bridge, which would become more vulnerable again with the new missiles. It is questionable, however, how many missiles Ukraine would have to invest in order to cut off the lifeblood of Russian supplies. At least Russia had time to use the USA’s months of bickering to make its own preparations. Since Ukraine’s successful attack in October, the Russians have had the opportunity to prepare for this threat ISW writes. The Russians could have both moved their depots back and protected them better against air raids.
The West continues to be somewhat concerned about the use of the weapon and the reaction from Moscow should an ATACM strike in the Russian heartland. The weapons are explicitly intended “for use within their own territory” like that daily News Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, quoted. Currently – on April 28th – the news agency reports Reuters from a renewed request from Ukraine to the USA. In his weekly video address, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had recently spoken with U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and asked him to speed up: “In my conversation with Mr. Jeffries, I emphasized the need for Patriot systems, and as quickly as possible.”
Cutting off supplies: Ukraine’s chance to stabilize the front
Reuters At the same time, reports that the situation on the front for Ukraine is deteriorating: Since the capture of the city of Avdiivka, Moscow’s troops have been advancing slowly, taking advantage of the defenders’ lack of artillery shells and soldiers. Kiev’s troops would have taken up new positions west of the villages of Berdykhi and Semenivka, both north of Avdiivka, and Novomykhailivka, further south near the town of Maryinka. “In general, the enemy achieved certain tactical successes in these areas, but was unable to gain operational advantages,” Laut said Reuters Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In March, Germany’s best-known military historian Sönke Neitzel NDR He joked that he was almost accused of defeatism at the recent Munich Security Conference when he said he would be happy if Ukraine at least didn’t lose – Neitzel repeatedly emphasizes that Ukraine’s ability to attack must be increased. According to him, optimism is spread primarily by those who have no idea “how difficult offensive operations are to conduct,” as he says. The Atacms could contribute to the attack capability. That looks too Mirror-Author Gernot Kramper said – he feared that the Ukrainians would not be able to withstand Russian pressure for much longer.
“If it is now possible to cut off Russian supplies and hit the command structures, the Russian offensive momentum would weaken. That wouldn’t mean victory, but the Ukrainians would at least have a chance to stabilize their front.” (KaHin)