“The moment is more dangerous than most Americans realize”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Stockholm on Thursday
Source: REUTERS
More than 100,000 Russian soldiers are ready at the border with Ukraine, and there is fear in Kiev that history will repeat itself. How would the West react to a Russian invasion? NATO is only partially ready to defend itself and now Russia is putting the USA under pressure.
VRobert Menendez, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the US Senate, spoke of a “direct Russian invasion”. He called on the EU and NATO to support Ukraine in the fight against Russia with weapons. “We have to give Ukraine the opportunity to defend itself,” said Menendez.
That was in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea and while Moscow destabilized eastern Ukraine with pro-Russian separatists. Seven years later, Russian soldiers march on the border with Ukraine. Ukraine speaks of 115,000 soldiers. Russia accuses Ukraine of having deployed more than 120,000 soldiers on the line to the pro-Russian separatist regions.
Is history repeating itself? Does Russia President Dare to Take the Final Step? Is Vladimir Putin preparing to invade Ukraine?
The Kremlin caught the Western alliance partially ready for defense. Germany is waiting for a new government, France is facing presidential elections.
Above all, however, there is a reluctance to foreign policy in the USA, the interventionists in both parties are on the retreat. Senator Menendez is still head of the Foreign Affairs Committee. So far, he has not called for arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Biden can’t afford to be humiliated
Politically battered President Joe Biden is under extreme pressure. Biden cannot afford to be humiliated by Putin. Even his own people put pressure on Biden. In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Menendez fights for a whole range of sanctions, for example against high government officials and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. With a heavy heart, Biden actually gave the green light for this project in the summer.
The US president suffers from poor poll numbers. The mid-term elections in 2022 could be a disaster for his party, at the beginning of the end of his presidency. Republicans accuse Biden of being too soft when dealing with Putin, despite the fact that Donald Trump had cuddled Putin. Biden’s critics are now asking what brought the summit between Biden and Putin in June.
Now there should be another meeting between Biden and Putin, or at least that’s what Moscow is proposing. If, when and in what format? Not clear. Biden is in a dilemma. On the one hand, he wants to support Ukraine as much as possible and limit Russia’s aggressive ambitions. On the other hand, Ukraine is not a NATO member state, so it does not fall under the assistance obligation under Article 5.
Foreign policy realist Biden knows that majorities and conditions for medium-term NATO membership are not in sight. On the other hand, he must make it clear to Putin that it is not Russia that decides on Ukraine’s membership in NATO, but rather: Ukraine and NATO.
Meanwhile, many Americans are convinced that the US has no business outside of its borders. The foreign policy hawks have no influence. Frustrated poses the conservative “Wall Street Journal” with a view to the conflict on the Ukrainian-Russian border: “The moment is more dangerous than most Americans realize.”
The fact that Russia is now asking the US to enter the talks about Ukraine is putting Washington under pressure. “Our American colleagues have not just said once that they want to help,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday at his meeting with his US colleague Antony Blinken in Stockholm.
The US had largely left operational responsibility for Ukraine to Berlin and Paris. In the so-called Normandy format, only France and Germany have so far mediated between Ukraine and Russia.
Lavrov called on NATO again on Thursday to end NATO’s eastward expansion. Old Fox Lavrov also knows that Ukraine’s membership of this kind is currently in the political stars. Robert Menendez himself ruled out sending US and NATO troops to Ukraine in 2014.