Ukraine
The dam break and the consequences for the war
The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine is affecting drinking water supplies, food supplies and ecosystems that stretch to the Black Sea. photo
© Uncredited/AP
Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of responsibility for the dam destruction. But who can benefit from such a catastrophe – and what does it mean for the major offensive?
It wasn’t pictures of the front that went around the world from Ukraine in the past few days. They were images of the worst humanitarian crisis since the beginning of the war: masses of water that force their way through the broken dam of the Kachowka reservoir, flood large areas and almost completely swallow thousands of houses.
But apart from the human suffering, the dead and the massive economic and ecological damage, the dam rupture also has a tangible military component – especially against the background of the large-scale Ukrainian offensive that has now probably begun.
Ukraine and the West accuse Russia of causing the dam to collapse. Moscow denies this and blames Ukrainian missiles for the destruction of the dam. Both sides cite military reasons for their blame game. The floods are indeed reshuffling the cards on the battlefield.
Army rescues flood victims
The new location has advantages and disadvantages for both Moscow and Kiev. For the moment, the flooded section of the front seems to be out of the game as a target for the Ukrainians. The water masses make it impossible for larger forces to advance. At the same time, the Ukrainian army is still busy rescuing and caring for flood victims. Thousands of people were brought to safety.
The flood is also raising the water level of tributaries in the lower reaches of the Dnipro, which can lead to logistical problems in the hinterland. Under these circumstances, a Ukrainian offensive in the region is unthinkable.
However, the flooding also has long-term effects on possible hostilities in the region. According to some experts, even after the water masses have subsided, the ground will remain swampy for weeks, if not months. Fast progress is thus practically impossible. Heavy equipment threatens to simply collapse. This is a disadvantage for the Ukrainians, who have relied on fast and agile units in past offensives.
Deputy Defense Minister Hannah Maljar on Sunday accused Russia of having blown up the dam in order to make an offensive by the Ukrainians in the Cherson region impossible, thus freeing up reserves so that they could be transferred to other sectors of the front.
With the front section now under water, Kiev loses a credible alternative where it can advance. Recent counterattacks have focused mainly on their most important front in the south of the country, the Zaporizhia region. Important because the Ukrainian troops could advance towards the Black Sea coast in the event of a breakthrough here and thus drive a wedge between the Russian armed forces stationed there. This would make it difficult for them to be cared for.
The Zaporizhia region is difficult for attacks. The steppe is very manageable and offers little cover for attackers. From secure cover, main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers are an easy target for the artillery.
Hodges: Russian advantage short-lived
According to US military expert Phillips O’Brien, it could be weeks before the Ukrainians succeed in attacking here. The Russians are aware of the importance of the front in Zaporizhia. “They have put up some of the deepest defenses and are using some of their best forces to defend the area,” O’Brien said.
Kherson, now partially flooded, was seen as a way of forcing the Russian military to defend other sectors of the front and thus overloading Moscow’s units. By creating a bridgehead on the left side of the Dnipro – previously occupied by Russia – the Ukrainians could have put the Russians in a dangerous position.
Ben Hodges, retired lieutenant general and former supreme commander of US forces in Europe, sees the Russian advantage as short-lived. In his estimation, the high temperatures in summer will quickly dry out the soil again.
On the other side, the masses of water have also washed away the Russian defenses, possibly destroying ammunition and fuel depots, so that the logistics here have to be rebuilt. The strategically important Kinburn Peninsula in the Dnipro Delta in front of the Black Sea exit, which is currently controlled by Moscow troops, has been cut off from the hinterland by the flood and could become the target of Ukrainian attacks.
With the peninsula stretching far to the west, Russia not only controls the Dnipro but extends its influence well into the western Black Sea. The seaport of Mykolaiv, which is one of the most important ports along with Odessa, is practically cut off from world trade by Russian control of the Kinburn Peninsula. For Kiev, the recapture of the tip of the land would be very important, especially since it would also put the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea within range.
In addition, the water level in the Kachowka reservoir drops dramatically with the outflow of enormous amounts of water towards the Black Sea. This means that crossing the Dnipro will also be an option in future at other points that previously offered no chance of success due to the width of the reservoir. Russia is thus forced to monitor these front sections as well – and thus to diversify forces.