Saudi Arabia is striving for recognition and trying to polish its image. Now the Saudis want to score points with a summit meeting on the war against Ukraine. Does the country now serve as an angel of peace?
Surprise guests like to drop by in Saudi Arabia: He warmly welcomes the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, said the Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman in May at the Arab League summit, at which Selenskyj surprisingly also spoke. And directly added: “I hope that our efforts will be successful.”
Efforts – the Saudi ruler may also mean his own interest: the successful role as mediator in global conflicts. The oil-rich country on the Gulf is obsessively polishing its image with the aim of being perceived as an important player both regionally and internationally.
Good contacts on all sides
Political scientist Mustafa Kamal Sayyed of Cairo University says: Saudi Arabia is convinced that it has the financial and economic power and the political clout to play an active role on the international stage. “The Saudis have good relations with many important players such as the US, Russia, China, Europe – so those in power are convinced that they are in the right position to mediate in conflicts,” he explains.
Good contacts are maintained with all sides in the Gulf. Selenskyj already certified Saudi Arabia’s first mediation successes in the Ukraine war. “We already have good experience with Saudi Arabia when it comes to releasing our people who have been captured by Russia. We can expand on that experience,” he said.
So now the next forum for Ukraine in Saudi Arabia. A summit meeting with around 30 countries – in addition to representatives from the USA and the EU, above all from countries of the so-called Global South: States such as India, Brazil, Egypt and Indonesia – developing and emerging countries that have so far largely remained neutral in the Ukraine war . Ukraine wants to make their ten-point peace plan palatable to them, and all of this in the Saudi port city of Jeddah. China is also there, Russia is not represented.
Saudi Arabia benefits from the war
Is the conservative Arab oil monarchy Saudi Arabia now serving as an angel of peace against Russia? Hardly likely. According to analysts, the Saudis have their own interest in an end to the war, since the global supply shortages are also threatening to destabilize the Near and Middle East. But Riyadh also maintains excellent relations with Moscow.
As a major oil exporting nation at the same table as Russia in OPEC+, Saudi Arabia is even benefiting from the higher oil prices from the Ukraine war. The Saudis also bought up barrels of cheap Russian oil in order to do double business. And shortly after Zelenskyy was in Saudi Arabia in May, Russia sent its interior minister to the Gulf for security talks.
Difficult relationship with the USA
Only one relationship has recently been significantly troubled: the United States has long been a close ally of Saudi Arabia. But the cuts in oil production angered Washington, and the West is observing the increasingly independent policies of the Saudis with concern: the end of the political ice age and the resumption of diplomatic relations with Iran – of all things mediated by the Chinese, who are busy doing business with Saudi Arabia. Improved relations with Syrian dictator Assad. The close connection to Russia.
Last year, US President Joe Biden only greeted the Saudi crown prince with an outstretched fist, the so-called fist bump, instead of a handshake – with reference to Corona, of course.
Expert sees signal to Washington
Is the current Ukraine meeting in Jeddah a concession – a signal from the Saudis to the West that the Gulf has not completely turned its back on the US?
Yes, says political scientist Mustafa Kamal Sayyed. Because Saudi Arabia has clear interests vis-à-vis the USA: “The Saudis want to conclude a security agreement with the USA that would give Saudi Arabia, like a NATO country, protection from the USA in the event of an attack. The Saudis also want the USA support a national civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia that would be overseen by the US,” said Mustafa Kamal Sayyed. “And the Saudis are interested in American weapons systems.”
For several reasons, the Saudis also have a great interest in good relations with the United States, according to the political scientist, but they also know: “In order to be a serious negotiating power, they need good relations with the other side, with Russia and China.”
Size peace conference as goal
In response to the Saudi demands, the Biden government is pushing for a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel – also as a regional bulwark against Iran. So far, Riyadh has kept a low profile.
They are now trying to score points in other areas: the summit on the Ukraine war this weekend in Jeddah is the follow-up conference to a similar meeting in Denmark at the end of June. The aim is to convene a major peace conference this year, to which Russia will then also be invited. But even if the summit meeting this weekend will probably not bring any direct peace in Ukraine, the Saudis are already certain of one thing: a large portion of international attention.