The head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service, on the other hand, predicted in an extremely optimistic sounding prognosis that the war would end with a Russian defeat by the end of the year. There will be a turnaround on the fronts by mid-August at the latest, Major General Kyrylo Budanov told the British broadcaster Sky News. “The turning point comes in the second half of August.” By the end of the year, Ukraine will regain control of all its territories, including the Crimean Peninsula. Budanov also expected major changes in the Kremlin. In his view, a coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin is already underway. He did not provide evidence for his claims.
Kiev’s presidential adviser: Russia’s army and economy are shaking
According to Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych, Russia’s army and economy are on shaky ground. According to the Unian agency, Arestovych said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s image of the “invincible, second-biggest army in the world” had already turned out to be “fake”. The reality of the past few weeks has shown a real picture of the combat capability of the Russian army: “It threatened to dismantle NATO, but has already failed at two villages in the Sumy region (in north-eastern Ukraine).”
At the same time, Selenskyj’s advisor predicted what he believed to be the imminent collapse of the Russian economy in the summer. “Any attempt to negotiate with the West will fail,” said Arestovych. This will make itself felt in July or August at the latest in the event of a possible mobilization. He questioned whether the Russian economy could withstand this pressure. “There can be no healthy economy in a country where everything else is rotten.”
Kyiv sees “third phase” of war
The Ukrainian leadership sees the beginning of the “third phase” of the Russian war of aggression and a protracted struggle associated with it. “Phase one” was an attempt to overrun Ukraine “in a few days,” said Viktor Andrusyw, an adviser in the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior, on television on Saturday night. In the second phase, the Ukrainian forces were to be encircled and crushed in several boilers. “And they didn’t do that either.”
In the new “third phase” the Russian military prepared to defend the territory gained so far. “It shows that they want to make a long war out of it,” said Andrusyw. Apparently, the Russian government thinks that it can force the West to the negotiating table and thus force Ukraine to give in.
Negotiations for Azovstal defenders difficult
According to Kiev, the negotiations about a possible free withdrawal or partial withdrawal of the Ukrainian soldiers who were surrounded in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol are “extremely difficult”. That said the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Wereschuk, who is responsible for the talks, as reported by the Unian agency. “I share the fear and concern of those close to the fort’s defenders,” she said. But there is war. “And in war there are no miracles, only bitter realities.” Therefore, only a “sober and pragmatic approach” will help in this case.