When there are only three days between a political announcement and its implementation, this is a breakneck pace for the EU. “We will take action against the other aggressor in this war, namely the Lukashenko regime,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday evening. About 60 hours later, the ambassadors of the 27 EU countries approved the new sanctions, which will come into force this Wednesday published in the Official Journal and thus became effective.
After the presidential election in August 2020, which the ruler Alexander Lukashenko had rigged, the member states struggled internally for a long time about which areas of the Belarusian economy they wanted to hit and what damage they could accept for their own companies, they are now taking tougher action. The new sanctions hit the Belarusian timber, steel and potash industries in particular. In the case of the latter, loopholes are now to be closed that were initially left open because many EU countries were waiting for these deliveries of fertilizers from the state concern Belaruskali are dependent.
In addition, the EU wants to extend to Belarus the export restrictions on high-tech products and dual-use goods that it imposed on Moscow. This is not only intended to prevent Russia from undermining the measures taken in Brussels. Belarus should therefore experience the treatment that von der Leyen described as follows immediately after the invasion ordered by President Vladimir Putin: “We will weaken Russia’s economic base and its ability to modernize.”
According to the independent newspaper, the various EU sanctions against Minsk and Moscow are leading Nasha Niva to the fact that the business world in Belarus is “on the verge of panic”. Cooperation with Russian banks has become difficult. In addition, several thousand IT specialists are currently fleeing the country, as Western companies fear working with employees in Belarus. In addition, most of the programmers who work in the industry, which has recently been heavily promoted in Belarus, are young and could be drafted if the war were to start directly.
Entry bans and account freezes
In addition, 22 members of the Belarusian military are being banned from entering the country and having their accounts blocked by the EU because they are said to have made the war against Ukraine possible. There is no doubt in the capitals or in Brussels that Lukashenko supports Putin’s plans. After calling on the International Criminal Court on Tuesday, on behalf of the European Parliament, to investigate possible war crimes by Putin’s “war machine,” President Roberta Metsola cried: “We will hold him accountable, just like Lukashenko.”
The heads of state and government of NATO formulated it almost identically in their joint statement: The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was “made possible by Belarus”. The maneuvers held in Belarus in February with 30,000 Russian soldiers were viewed with concern in the defense alliance. The feared scenario that Russia’s army would also attack Ukraine from Belarus has materialized. And if the Russian troops, including tanks, missiles and weapon systems, remain in Belarus, which is currently the case, the military planners will have to react and send more NATO soldiers to the eastern flank.
Hardly anyone in NATO and the EU took Lukashenko’s clumsy efforts to avoid the word “war” and keep a certain distance from Putin seriously. That facade fell on Tuesday when state television broadcast footage of a National Security Council meeting. Lukashenko was seen pointing to a large map of Ukraine and repeating Russian propaganda that the “operation” against Ukraine was purely defensive. On the Internet, the map and the symbols seen there were immediately analyzed. For example, a landing action from the water is drawn in Odessa on the Black Sea. Another red arrow indicates that a connection is to be established from Odessa to neighboring Moldova, where Russian troops are already stationed.
These scenarios are nothing new for Western intelligence agencies. Even if the US recently denied the government in Kyiv that that Belarusian soldiers have already entered the territory of Ukraine, rejected, this is considered probable by experts. A senior intelligence official said the Süddeutsche Zeitung, he assumes that Lukashenko is in the process of “justifying a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine” and will soon agree to the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons on his territory. A corresponding referendum has just made this step possible.