The EU summit in Brussels is crucial for Ukraine. It’s about more than the formal start of accession talks. Because the country is in a precarious situation.
It is a week of crucial importance for the people of Ukraine. Arriving on the ground of political realities, the attacked country has become the subject of domestic political disputes in Washington and Brussels.
Ukraine must decide its own future, its Western partners have repeatedly emphasized publicly since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression. But now groundbreaking decisions about the country’s future are being made in Washington and Brussels.
Diplomatic show of strength by the Ukrainian leadership
In order to influence the political situation in their favor, the Ukrainian leadership is currently making a major effort. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke on Ukrainian television of a diplomatic intensity that had not been seen since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression.
The meeting of EU heads of state and government is not only about the formal start of accession negotiations with the European Union, but also about 50 billion euros in macro-financial aid for Ukraine over the next four years.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatens to block both. And so Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba expects a difficult summit: “The negotiations will last until the last minute, and we will work at all levels until the last minute.”
Ukraine is in a precarious situation
Kuleba already had harsh words in Brussels on Monday. Ukraine has implemented all the reforms requested by the EU, he said. “The European Union must now prove that it can keep its word and ensure unity.”
The Foreign Minister was confident that sooner or later Ukraine would become a member of the European Union. It’s just a question of time and price. “The greatest price will be paid by the Ukrainian people,” Kuleba continued. “We should not pay an even higher price for the mistakes you might make here in Brussels or in individual European capitals.”
With one’s back to the wall
Kuleba’s urgent words show the precarious situation Ukraine currently finds itself in. On the more than 1,200 kilometer long front line, the Ukrainian army has its back to the wall. After a sobering year with a largely failed offensive and thousands of deaths, the Russian troops are now taking the initiative again, especially in the east.
On the Ukrainian side, the mood is increasingly depressed. Many soldiers have been deployed non-stop for almost two years. They complain of fatigue, and their relatives vent their anger during protests against the Ukrainian leadership’s ineffective conscription policy.
Newly promised aid is reaching a low level
The exhaustion of the Ukrainian population is now mixed with concerns about a lack of military and financial aid from Western partner countries. Data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy gives additional cause for concern. Accordingly, the newly promised aid reached a low between August and October 2023 and fell by almost 90 percent compared to the previous year.
In this context too, the European Council’s decision to start accession negotiations is important for Ukraine. It will “have a significant impact on the motivation of Ukrainian society and the army,” wrote Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj on the short message service X, formerly Twitter.
Important additional financial aid
But a negative decision could also have devastating consequences for the EU’s reputation in Ukraine, argue analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The EU, it is said, runs the risk of alienating the very people in Ukrainian society who actually wanted to support the EU. “It is clearly in Europe’s interest to avoid such a scenario,” the experts write.
But in addition to strong symbols and an urgently needed boost to morale, Ukraine primarily needs further financial aid. In November, the Ukrainian parliament approved its state budget for the coming year. The need for external support for spending outside the security and defense sector amounts to $41 billion.
Trust in the EU is also at stake
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, foreign financial aid covers a large part of the Ukrainian state budget. The EU was by far the largest donor this year with more than $17.8 billion.
If Western funds fail to materialize, there is a risk of economic collapse, warns Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko to the online medium Politico.
Only with Western money is Ukraine able to invest its income in the country’s defense without having to cut civil servants’ salaries, pensions or other state social contributions at the same time.
So the decision in Brussels is about much more than a symbolic act. On the one hand, Ukraine’s defense capability and state survival are at stake.
And on the other hand, the trust and credibility of Ukrainians in the European Union.