The battle for Avdiivka lasted ten months, and now the defense is collapsing. The only question that remains: How many men can Kiev recover from the city? And: It only remains one defeat.
What happened? The Russians managed to divide the city down the middle. Your troops have advanced onto the industrial road. They also managed to create a special symbol: they planted their flag at the exact spot where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had his photo taken in December. At the same time, her two encircling pliers advanced further. The Ukrainian bottleneck is only a few hundred meters wide.
In this acute crisis, the Ukrainians are – finally – beginning to evacuate their forward bases. The old air defense base in the south and the sewage treatment plant in the west. Both are difficult operations; the soldiers have to fight for miles on foot across heavily muddy fields. Everything is under the sight of the Russian drones and fired at with all weapons.
At the moment it looks as if the Russian drones are dominating the airspace over the combat area. The Ukrainians are withdrawing to the two remaining strongholds. The citadel is the high-rise buildings in the city center and the huge factory in the north. But both bases have already been separated from each other by the Russians.
The abandonment of the removed points has two reasons. The Russian advances are lengthening the front line, and Kiev’s troops are becoming less and less able to defend it. The retreat shortens the battle line, so the weaker forces have a better chance of resisting. But concentrating on two points also has a serious disadvantage: the huddled defenders are shot down by artillery and bombs.
Orderly retreat doubtful
The return to the western positions makes it at least theoretically possible to evacuate the city after all. How this will happen is unclear. The fields in the area are soggy, and even infantry can hardly make any progress. An escape over the fields would be a catastrophe given the Russian firepower.
In this war there were always “deals”, i.e. agreements between the warring parties. It seems to be too late for that in Avdiivka; the Ukrainians can no longer offer the Russians.
The retreat to the two fortresses leads to the Russians gaining control of the rest of the city. At the same time they break into the area west of the city and are said to be approaching the village of Lastochkyne. This leaves the Ukrainians in the city with only the route to Sjeverne as a last resort. A few days ago, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, also known as Azov, was deployed to Avdiivka. Instead of launching a major offensive that should have broken the Russian stranglehold, these are small forces that are only enough to boost the troops’ weakening resistance. Now the 3rd Assault Brigade is supposed to be outside the city to prevent the Russians from conquering villages and tree lines west of the city.
Development of the next few days
If this development continues, the Russians will further dent and completely isolate the southern part of the pocket over the weekend. The Ukrainians are then forced into the two core areas of high-rise buildings and factories. The garrison in the city no longer has the strength for an orderly breakout. Because of the Russian drones, dropping off in small groups is only possible with losses. In order to evacuate larger groups from the city, Ukraine must hold the small villages and temporarily carve out a corridor into the city from the outside.
A warning sign for Zelensky
The defeat in Avdiivka is a catastrophe for Ukraine, with more far-reaching consequences than the fall of Bakhmut. The city is smaller, but has been expanded as a fortress since 2014. Compared to the fall of Bakhmut, the Russians have greatly increased their firepower. Kiev lacks artillery ammunition, but the Russians also have a pressing superiority when it comes to drones and heavy glide bombs. In addition, they manage to almost completely constrict Avdiivka, which actually makes it impossible for the last defenders to escape. The losses will be correspondingly higher.
Ukraine needs a glimmer of hope
The mood in Ukraine has changed. Hero stories will also be presented from Avdiivka, of heroic fighters who hold out in the bunkers of the coking plant. In addition, Russian losses are becoming ever higher, while their own losses are modest. But these narratives are worn out. And an essential moment is missing: the long – many say too long – holding of Bakhmut was justified by the fact that the breakwater had held back the Russians for months. The sacrifice of the fighters there made it possible to raise troops for the counteroffensive. The focus was shifted from the defeat in Bakhmut to the coming victory in the summer of 2023. At the same time, some commando operations were launched in Belgorod to present a victory story to the world.
There is now no denying that the 2023 summer offensive was a failure. Worse still, liberation strikes are not expected in 2024; they are not possible until 2025 at the earliest. The slogan is simply: persevere! Kiev can always hold one more city until the bitter end. But that will hardly be enough; the new chief of staff will have to inflict defeat on Russia on the ground.
Compared to Bakhmut, there are other negative differences. After the fall of Bakhmut, the Russians were completely exhausted. They could not take advantage of the fall of the city, Kiev was able to hold even the nearest villages. This year it is feared that Putin will continue his attacks and build up new pressure even from the Avdiivka area. On top of that, the Russians are not only pressing the front near Avdiivka. The situation is getting worse in nine places. Even if the Russians don’t succeed in everything, it is to be feared that the fall of Avdiivka will not be the last bad news. At Bakhmut they attack the village of Ivanivske. The aim here is to bypass and ultimately undermine the dominant “mountain fortress” of Chassiv Yar – a city on a ridge. The situation in the north in the Kupyansk area is also critical.
War of oversaturation
There is only fighting on part of the 1,000-kilometer-long front. The establishment of several focal points of attack reveals the Russian strategy. They don’t dream of a breakthrough and really deep operations. They try to overwhelm the defenders. So far, Kiev has managed to hold the front with second and third line troops. The elite formations were then used in Russian attacks. Now the Russians are calculating that Kiev will run out of these reserves if they initiate major battles in more and more areas.
Ukraine can only hope that this calculation doesn’t work out and that Putin runs out of supplies and soldiers. But in order to sustain this intense war of attrition, Ukraine’s shortage of recruits and ammunition must be addressed. But even if, by some miracle, the recruitment and training of hundreds of thousands of soldiers begins and aid from the USA resumes, there will remain a dark gap of several months.
The spelling of place names follows Google Maps.