In the Ukraine conflict, the West is increasingly anticipating a possible Russian invasion of the neighboring country. The US government spoke of a “very clear possibility” of a Russian invasion.
US President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, said a Russian attack could come as early as the current Beijing Winter Olympics and would likely begin with “air and missile strikes” that could kill civilians. He called on US citizens to leave Ukraine within “the next 24 to 48 hours”. Several other countries endorsed the recommendation.
Satellite photos show military movements
The Pentagon also announced that it would send 3,000 additional US troops to Poland. These are paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Brigade at Fort Bragg. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had already ordered the deployment of 1,700 more soldiers to Poland in early February. In addition, US F-16 fighter jets were transferred from Germany to a base in Romania, 100 kilometers from the Black Sea.
However, National Security Advisor Sullivan said the US still does not believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a “final decision” to launch an attack. Recently, however, more Russian soldiers have arrived at the border with Ukraine.
Satellite photos showed various military movements, for example in the annexed Crimea or in Belarus, on the border with Ukraine. Soldiers and military technology were relocated, including S-400 air defense systems. In addition, according to information from Moscow, Sukhoi Su-25SM fighter jets were brought over 7,000 kilometers from eastern Russia on the Pacific to the Brest area near the Polish border.
West: Moscow has more than 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine
US-based Maxar Technologies, which has been following the build-up of Russian forces for weeks and released the satellite photos, said images taken on Wednesday and Thursday showed significant new deployments in several locations in annexed Crimea, western Russia and Belarus, like the news agency Reuters reported.
Movements included loud “New York Times” Troops, vehicles and other equipment at Novoozernoye and Slavne near the west coast, and more than 550 new tents for troops and hundreds of vehicles at a disused airfield at Oktyabrskoe near the center of the Crimean peninsula.
The satellite images also show that additional military assets have been transferred to the Kursk region in western Russia. That puts them near the strategic city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest, which has a large Russian-speaking population.
According to Western information, Moscow has massed more than 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine in recent months, but denies any plans of attack. Russia says it feels threatened by NATO.
Joint exercise of Russia and Belarus
Rob Lee, an expert on the Russian military and a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute, said the “Moscow Times”that “as of this week, the Russian military has all the military capabilities to actually conduct a large-scale invasion.”
Similarly, Samuel Charap, a Russian security analyst at the US RAND Corporation, tweeted on Thursday evening. He wrote that there was absolutely no need “to do what Moscow is doing unless they create the option for something qualitatively greater than anything we’ve seen.”
Russia and Belarus started joint military maneuvers on Thursday, which are expected to last for ten days. The Defense Ministry in Moscow announced that the exercise was intended to train “defense against external aggression”. The Kremlin assured that the Russian soldiers would leave neighboring Belarus after the end of the controversial joint military exercise. “If you’ve been following it closely, no one has ever said that Russian troops are staying on Belarusian territory,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to the Interfax agency.
Russia denies invading Ukraine
Moscow has repeatedly said that the exercise is in accordance with international law and that a – significantly lower – maximum number of soldiers will not be exceeded. In addition, the Kremlin emphasizes that the deployment of troops to the allied ex-Soviet republic of Belarus is purely for training purposes. In the West, however, it is feared that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine as part of the maneuver.
Parallel to the maneuvers in Belarus, Russia had warships practice in the Black Sea. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kiev protested against the closure of large sea areas around the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia. Navigation in the Azov and Black Seas would be made virtually impossible. According to media reports, the closures will apply, among other things, directly to the Kerch Strait from February 13th to 19th. The Kremlin rejected allegations that there was a restriction on merchant ships.
Other sources: Reuters news agency, “The Moscow Times”. “The New York Times”