Ukraine crisis: “There is no way the conflict is averted”

The Kremlin announces a partial withdrawal of troops from the Ukraine conflict, and NATO is ready to talk. in the tagesschau24-In an interview, Eastern Europe expert Sasse explains why the crisis has not yet been resolved.

tagesschau24: After the announced withdrawal of the first Russian soldiers from the border with Ukraine, has the conflict been averted?

Gwendolyn Sass: The conflict is by no means averted. The troop presence remains massive. Maneuvers continue to take place on the southern, eastern and northern sides of Ukraine and the troop presence will remain significant. Nevertheless, it is a first signal that one wants to change the situation on site. This means that the Russian side will also create a somewhat larger space for negotiations and de-escalation. I believe that was deliberately signaled in this way during the Chancellor’s visit today. But the danger of war still remains.

tagesschau24: Some say this is a distraction. Because there are still many troops at the border who have nothing at all to do with maneuvers.

sasse: It may well be that this is just a kind of diversionary maneuver and that they wanted to create a slightly better mood for today’s meeting. But if we think optimistically, then Russia too must come a little way out of the intensity of this military confrontation. The Western countries, the EU, NATO will not be able to maintain the intensity of crisis diplomacy either. So there must be another stage. Something has to shift – and that has been signaled. It cannot be ruled out at all that the pressure can rise again. After all, many of the troops were not withdrawn. I only see it as an intermediate step that buys a little more time. But not anymore.

The alleged promise of the end of eastward expansion

tagesschau24: One of Russia’s most important demands is an end to NATO’s eastward expansion. Is Russia right when it says that the country was assured many years ago that there would be no eastward enlargement?

sasse: This thesis of the promises that were made to Gorbachev and then also to Yeltsin is used again and again, especially in the Russian state media and in Russian official rhetoric. We know that there was no written agreement in this regard. In the talks that took place in 1990 in connection with the reunification of Germany in particular, those involved noted in their diaries and in their notes that this topic was also discussed. For example William Burns, the current head of the CIA. But these were not written agreements. And in further steps, Russia then agreed to the eastward expansion in writing: with the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997.

On the other hand, it is understandable that Russia says it feels threatened by NATO’s eastward expansion. Because that is the perception in Russia. In particular, the membership of Ukraine and Georgia is a particularly sore point for Russia. On the other hand, of course, that doesn’t mean that we don’t take the threat scenarios on the part of NATO – especially those for the Eastern and Central European member states – seriously.

“positions very far apart”

tagesschau24: The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj said that NATO membership would probably only remain a dream for his country. Is this the key to de-escalation: a NATO without Ukraine?

sasse: It is the only thing that is possible on the subject of NATO. It will not be possible for Ukraine to do without the opportunity to choose an alliance itself. Nor will it be possible for NATO to issue guarantees in this respect. And they also know in Moscow that they will not get an official commitment to the maximum demands that NATO should not be allowed to develop further eastwards. But I believe that these internationally visible and audible announcements at least created a small space and also had a positive influence on the talks today.

tagesschau24: How important do you think it is that the talks in the Normandy format, i.e. between France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia, continue?

sasse: I found it interesting that Putin also referred strongly to the Normandy format, particularly to the implementation of the Minsk Agreement. This is a sign that you are also looking for room for negotiation, room for manoeuvre. And the views on this agreement are very different in Moscow and Kiev. You have not come any closer in any way so far. But to state so clearly, also in the press conference, that it is the format in which further negotiations must be carried out, is also a step in the direction of further negotiations. But the Ukrainian and Russian positions are still very far apart. Therefore, there will not be a rapid convergence.

But the trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE have also been blocked for a long time. And today a signal went out from the press conference that this format should be revived. In the current situation, that is a small partial success.

Little hope in eastern Ukraine

tagesschau24: How difficult is the current situation in eastern Ukraine? How should things proceed in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions?

sasse: Russia created facts, albeit in a different way, just like in Crimea. In parts of the Donbass, Russia has been supporting local separatists financially and militarily since the war began in 2014. Support in these self-proclaimed people’s republics also includes Russian passports, which have been increasingly distributed over the past year. It is now assumed that there are around 600,000 Russian citizens there. In other words, facts are created there so that part of the Donbass begins to reorient itself in the reality of a war.

There is a lack of opportunities and hope that one could rejoin Ukraine. But progress in the negotiations always means that at least humanitarian issues can be addressed. These mean a lot to the local population. The humanitarian and economic situation is catastrophic. The status of this region will remain unresolved for a long time.