US President Joe Biden has responded with a new diplomatic gesture to Russia’s threat policy against Ukraine and underscored his determination in the event of military aggression. After Biden had telephoned Russian President Vladimir Putin last Thursday, he informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi of the conversation on Monday night, repeating the warnings he had sent to Moscow. The United States and its allies would “react decisively if Russia continued to invade Ukraine,” said the White House after the talks.
Behind the formula there is an unspecified catalog of punishments that Biden has promised his Russian counterpart in the event that the Russian units that have drawn together on the Ukrainian border should march into the country. Putin has always denied such intentions, but for his part threatens that Russia will have to defend itself if the Ukraine or western states cross “red lines”.
Putin understands this to mean the stationing of additional weapons in Ukraine or the relocation of troops to NATO territory on the Russian border, for example in the Baltic States. Putin is demanding security guarantees from NATO and has submitted two draft treaties for this purpose, which he is demanding that they be signed.
After the conflict had narrowed more and more to a Russian-American confrontation in recent weeks, Biden showed through the telephone conversation with the Ukrainian president that the US is essentially concerned with the security of Ukraine. Selenskyi wrote that he had discussed “joint actions to maintain peace in Europe” and steps towards de-escalation with Biden.
In his New Year’s address, Zelenskyi announced the prospect of recapturing the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, and regaining control over eastern Ukraine, which was occupied by pro-Russian separatists – military goals that are considered impractical and apparently postulated by Selenskyi with a view to the internal cohesion of Ukraine will.
Biden reiterated, according to the White House, that the sovereignty of Ukraine and the territorial integrity of the country are goals of American politics. The Minsk peace plan, which was negotiated in 2015 under German and French leadership, continues to apply to the solution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. He also supported talks in the so-called Normandy format, the group of four from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine that is used to negotiate the situation in Ukraine.
By commenting exclusively on the long-established political goals in the Ukraine peace process and emphasizing the European leadership role in the talks, Biden also indirectly made his rejection of the new Russian demands clear. The reference to the Normandy format can also be understood as a gesture towards the European states, which before Christmas had accused Biden of negotiating over their heads with Russia about the security architecture of Europe.
Talks between the US and Russia are planned for January 9 and 10 in Geneva, presumably between the deputy foreign ministers and delegations from the foreign and defense ministries of both countries. Thereafter, a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council is scheduled – the first in two and a half years. In addition, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will hold talks afterwards. Biden’s aim is to expand the talks to as many European participants as possible in order to avoid being permanently tied to Moscow’s plans.
Estonia wants to deliver artillery guns and anti-tank missiles to Ukraine
Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and the West are also causing unrest among immediate neighbors. A representative of the Ministry of Defense in Estonia announced that his country would deliver artillery pieces and anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. For the resale of the anti-tank weapons, Estonia would have to obtain approval from the manufacturer, the USA. The artillery apparently originated in Germany and was introduced into Estonia via Finland. Permission from Berlin would have to be obtained for this resale.
In Finland, too, the debate about zones of influence and claims to control has caused great nervousness. Both President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin made it clear in New Year’s speeches that their country has the right to freely choose a military alliance and that membership in NATO cannot be ruled out. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened last week that membership of NATO for Sweden or Finland would have “serious military and political consequences” and provoke an adequate response from Moscow. Both countries are officially militarily neutral, but maintain close ties to NATO.