Ukraine conflict: what does Putin’s new level of escalation mean?

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Ukraine conflict
“Recognized Separatist Areas”: What does Putin’s latest escalation stage mean?

by Yannik Schuller
2/22/2022, 4:08 p.m

The situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border is rapidly getting out of control. Before the eyes of the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on Monday that he would recognize the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent. As expected, the State Duma ratified the recognition of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics on Tuesday.

For Ukraine and its Western allies – including Germany – this means a completely new level of escalation in an already extremely tense situation. An overview.

What is the current situation? We show you in our graphic:

What are the Separatist Zones?

The two eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk – known collectively as “Donbass” – had already broken away from the Kiev government in 2014 and declared their independence. However, the international community of states did not accept the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics”. Although the pro-Russian separatists have since been supported partly covertly and partly openly by the Kremlin, Russia has not officially recognized Donbass independence either.

In the years that followed, Ukraine’s relationship with its breakaway territories repeatedly led to bloody clashes: 15,000 people are said to have died in fighting over the past eight years. According to information from the Reuters news agency, the Kremlin, as an unofficial protecting power, had issued more than 800,000 Russian passports to residents of Donbass during this period.

What does Putin’s decree mean for Ukraine?

Despite the increasingly loud saber-rattling in recent weeks, the Putin government has always denied invading Ukraine – to which Donbass officially belongs. With Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states, the situation is now changing fundamentally: it means the end of the Minsk peace agreement. The 2014/15 agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France provided for a high degree of autonomy for the two regions. Although it has not yet been implemented, the parties involved have always viewed the agreement as the most promising solution to the conflict.

Because the two regions are no longer part of Ukraine’s territory from a Russian perspective, Moscow could openly send troops and thereby secure the coveted land route to the already annexed Crimean Peninsula. This is why President Putin calls his border guards peacekeepers: from his perspective, Russia is merely defending an ally. However, Ukraine still controls parts of the breakaway regions – after all, from the perspective of Kiev, they belong to the state territory.

What steps could Russia take next?

According to the US think tank “Atlantic Council”, the recognition of the separatists comes as no surprise. “Putin knew he could carry out the land grab without the West imposing severe sanctions,” writes Michael Bociurkiw, an analyst on the Eurasia Center’s panel of experts. According to Reuters information, the separatists could ask Putin for help to wrest control of Kiev completely. This, in turn, would likely provoke open military conflict. The Russian troops, who were actually supposed to withdraw after the end of the maneuvers in Belarus on Sunday, are to remain stationed indefinitely on Ukraine’s northern border – a three-hour drive from Kiev. War is literally closer than it has been for a long time – at least in theory.

Because sending in the troops is likely to be just the next step in Putin’s plan, says Thomas Warrick, former deputy undersecretary for counterterrorism at the US Department of Homeland Security in the Atlantic Council article. Moscow is pursuing a “four-part plan for hybrid warfare”. An attack on Kiev and the installation of a “puppet government” is unlikely – Putin is too afraid of even more far-reaching sanctions. Rather, according to Warrick, Moscow wants to increase the pressure until Ukraine and the West feel compelled to negotiate and ultimately make real concessions.

How is the West reacting?

In the past few weeks, Western governments have repeatedly warned Russia that troop movements on the Ukrainian border would have serious consequences, above all financial / economic sanctions. In view of the recent intensification of the conflict, the West can and must react to the Kremlin’s breach of international law.

the USA are holding back because of the new level of escalation. According to a report in Time magazine, the White House issued an executive order barring Americans from investing or doing business in the separatist regions. A meeting between US President Biden and his Russian counterpart was previously under discussion. It is questionable whether this will happen after Putin’s statements on Monday.

While the USA initially did not describe the new level of escalation as an invasion (the star reported), has the EU Commission Far-reaching sanctions against Russia were already proposed in Brussels on Tuesday. According to diplomats, a draft presented to the member states envisages a ban on trading in Russian government bonds in order to make it more difficult for the Russian state to refinance. In addition, several hundred people and companies are said to be on the EU sanctions list.

the British government also want to react sharply. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in London that there would be an immediate package of economic sanctions. Should Russia launch a full-scale invasion, far tougher measures would come into play.

The most drastic reaction on the German side so far is the stop of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. How Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on Tuesday that the federal government is putting the project on hold for the time being. Weapons deliveries are still not planned.

In doing so, Berlin is partly responding to the demands of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had demanded a complete stop of the pipeline. the Ukrainian head of state is also considering breaking off relations with Russia. He had received a corresponding request from his foreign ministry and will now “check” it, said Zelenskyj in Kiev on Tuesday.

swell: “Reuters“; “time“; “Atlantic Council“; with material from the news agencies dpa and AFP