According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Russia plans to use a pretext to create a reason for the invasion of Ukraine. “This could be a violent event that Russia will bring against Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government,” Blinken told the United Nations Security Council in New York.
For example, an alleged terrorist attack in Russia, the “fictitious discovery of a mass grave” and allegations of genocide or a simulated or real attack with chemical weapons are possible. According to the United States, the alleged suppression or violent action against Russians or people of Russian origin and language in eastern Ukraine could serve as a pretext for war.
According to Blinken, the US then awaited the official Russian decision to protect Russian citizens or those of Russian origin in Ukraine and to start an attack. “Russian missiles and bombs are being dropped on Ukraine,” said Blinken. Communications across the country would be disrupted and cyber attacks would paralyze important institutions in Ukraine, the US fears. In the scenario, tanks and soldiers would advance on the ground in the country – also on the capital Kiev.
Russia, in turn, sent documents to the UN Security Council that are available to the German Press Agency. Among other things, it speaks of a “genocide against the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass, attacks on Russian diplomatic facilities, bombings in the Rostov-on-Don region, murders and other acts of violence against journalists.” Moscow also said it had found unmarked mass graves containing the remains of at least 295 civilians.
Germany, France and other European countries again threatened Russia with serious consequences in the event of military aggression against Ukraine. That would have “massive consequences and entail unprecedented costs,” said a joint statement by the two countries along with Estonia, Norway, Albania and the EU delegation to the United Nations after the UN Security Council meeting.
“I think we’ve speculated enough about it,” Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said of his country’s possible invasion of Ukraine. Contrary to the warnings, there was no invasion. Referring to the United States and its Western allies, Vershinin said in New York: “My advice to you is not to put yourself in an uncomfortable situation.” (02/18/2022)
Blinken and Lavrov agree to meet
US Secretary of State Tony Blinken has accepted an invitation to meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. The meeting is scheduled to take place late next week, provided Russia does not invade Ukraine by then, the US State Department said. US President Joe Biden will hold talks on the Ukraine crisis with the heads of state and government of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania and Great Britain this Friday. This was announced by the office of Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The European Union and NATO are also represented. In a speech to the UN Security Council in New York, Blinken explained how a Russian pretext for an attack could possibly be constructed. (02/18/2022)
More attacks in eastern Ukraine
According to the government and separatists, there were renewed attacks in the conflict area of eastern Ukraine on Friday. In statements, both sides blamed each other for violations of the current ceasefire.
Insurgents in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions said several dozen shells had been fired at the area since midnight. Compared to the previous day, the shelling had been significantly intensified. Two substations were damaged. A road was closed due to the unsafe situation.
The Ukrainian army also spoke of almost two dozen violations of the ceasefire. This information could not be independently verified. It was not immediately known whether there were any dead or injured. The West had already expressed concern about the situation on Wednesday. Since 2014, government troops have been fighting Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, not far from the Russian border. (02/18/2022)
EU Commission offers member states help with possible evacuations from Ukraine
In view of the growing tensions in the Ukraine conflict, the EU Commission has offered the member states help with possible rescue operations for their citizens. “There are currently around 20,000 EU citizens living in Ukraine, as well as a sizeable demographic with EU roots who may need assistance,” Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas said world. The EU is also ready to mobilize significant humanitarian aid and help with civil protection.
At the same time, Schinas warned of a wave of refugees into the European Union. “It is estimated that between 20,000 and more than a million refugees could come.” Schinas emphasized that refugees, just as before in Belarus, could be instrumentalized against the EU and deliberately used as a means of exerting pressure. (02/18/2022)
Biden fears a Russian invasion in the next few days
Despite all the assurances from Moscow, US President Joe Biden fears a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few days. Biden said in Washington that the threat of an invasion is “very high” and that he believes it could happen “in the next few days.” There is also reason to believe that Moscow is involved in a false flag operation, a term used to describe contrivance to artificially stage a pretext for an attack.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had previously said something similar: “We are concerned that Russia is trying to stage a pretext for an armed attack on Ukraine.” There are many Russian secret service agents in Ukraine who are also active in the Donbass. And we have seen attempts to use “false flag operations” to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) also sees a threatening situation on the border between Russia and Ukraine. Russia still has enough military potential there for an invasion, said Scholz after consultations with the EU heads of state and government in Brussels. “It’s threatening, and it will remain a threatening situation, and you can’t be naïve.” He reiterated the dual strategy towards Russia: on the one hand the threat of tough sanctions, on the other hand a willingness to talk.
Contrary to considerable doubts from the USA and NATO, Russia confirmed the partial withdrawal of its troops on Thursday. After the completion of maneuvers, tanks from the western military district were prepared for transport, the Ministry of Defense announced in Moscow.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, on the other hand, accused Russia of further increasing troops and equipment on the border with Ukraine. After the deliberations of the defense ministers of the NATO allies in Brussels, Austin said: The Russians asserted that they would withdraw some of their forces after the exercises were completed, “but we don’t see that – quite the opposite”.
In “the past few days,” Russia has brought about 7,000 additional troops near the Ukrainian border, “and some of them just arrived today,” a senior White House official said on Wednesday. Findings from the US government meanwhile show that Russia’s announcement of a partial withdrawal was “wrong,” he said. (02/17/2022)
Russia expels US deputy ambassador
Amid heightened tensions between Moscow and the West over the Ukraine crisis, the US deputy ambassador to Russia has been expelled from the country. This was confirmed by the US State Department on Thursday in Washington. Russia’s actions are groundless, “and we see this as an escalating step and are considering our response.”
Deputy Ambassador Bart Gorman had a valid visa, had been in Russia for less than three years and his time there was not yet over, it said. The US government called on Russia to “end the groundless expulsion of US diplomats and employees”. In the current situation, it is more important than ever that both countries have the necessary diplomatic staff to facilitate communication between governments.
The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed the expulsion in the evening. A statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday said the decision to expel Gormans was in response to the US expulsion of Russia’s deputy chief of missions to the United States.
When asked, the US State Department confirmed that Gorman left his post last week. The ministry did not give an explanation as to why this only became public now, with a delay of a few days.
There has long been a dispute between the United States and Russia over diplomatic personnel. A few weeks ago, Russia’s ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, complained that 27 Russian diplomats and their families had to leave the United States at the end of January. 28 more would have to leave the United States by the end of June. At the end of January, Antonov announced a reaction from Moscow on Facebook, but at the time left open what steps Russia would take.
The Russian foreign ministry blamed the US. All attempts to solve the problem have been rejected. The US government understands “the normalization of bilateral relations as a one-way street,” the statement said.
It was only in April 2021 that the United States expelled ten Russian diplomats and imposed new sanctions in retaliation for hacker attacks and interference in US elections attributed to Moscow. Russia responded by expelling ten US diplomats and imposing sanctions on the US. In addition, the government in Moscow issued an entry ban for high-ranking US government officials. (02/17/2022)