When Joe Biden became President of the United States less than a year ago, he had a relatively clear idea of his new foreign policy: more cuddles for the allies in Europe, who were so tormented by Donald Trump, more contractions to the rival Pacific power China. Russia, on the other hand, should, as the saying goes in the White House, be “parked” somewhere in the background, where it was as little in the way as possible.
One can assume that this unfriendly formulation was also noted in Moscow. From the point of view of a Russian nationalist like Vladimir Putin, who also mourns the great, respected, if not feared Soviet Union, it was an insult. And so, to stay in Washington jargon, the Russian President probably deliberately chose a place as a parking lot where he was guaranteed to disturb – the Ukraine.
Since then, Putin has blocked Biden’s path in two ways. On the one hand, the ongoing conflict with Moscow is distracting the US government from concentrating fully on the threat posed by China, as planned. On the other hand, the confrontation between the USA and Russia always brings a certain amount of friction into the transatlantic alliance. Nothing shows this as clearly as the German-American dispute over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which keeps flaring up.
From a Russian point of view, it works out: Joe Biden interrupted his Christmas vacation on Thursday to talk to Vladimir Putin on the phone and talk about Ukraine. It was the second conversation that the American president had with his Russian colleague this month – with the head of state of a country whose economic output is lower than that of Italy, but which has nuclear weapons and a healthy dose of military aggressiveness.
The White House was taciturn after the phone call Putin asked. Biden repeated his warning that the US and its allies would react with “drastic” measures – translated: with very tough economic sanctions – should Russian soldiers advance in Ukraine, it said in a press release. At the same time, Biden expressed his support for a diplomatic “dialogue” between Washington and Moscow. This should take place bilaterally as well as within the framework of NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). A first meeting of Russian and American diplomats is planned for January 10 in Geneva, followed by a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council on January 12, followed by an OSCE conference in Vienna one day later.
However, Biden had also told Putin that a dialogue could only take place in an “environment of de-escalation”, not if Moscow escalated the situation further. This can be read as an indication that Washington is not yet really convinced of the allegedly ordered withdrawal of some of the Russian soldiers who have marched on the border with Ukraine in recent weeks. According to reports, there have been reconnaissance flights by the US military over the border area in the past few days. What the spy planes found is not publicly known. Biden’s insistence on de-escalation suggests that, from the US perspective, Moscow could certainly withdraw even more troops.
For his part, after the 50-minute conversation, Putin announced that he was “satisfied”. He warned that it would be a “huge mistake” if Washington actually imposed new sanctions on Russia. That could lead to a “complete break” in Russian-American relations, Putin said, according to information from Moscow. But that wasn’t really surprising. Just as little as Putin’s warning that Moscow wants tangible results from the talks with the USA.
However, it is difficult to predict how tangible such results can be in practice. Moscow, for example, is demanding an official, binding commitment from NATO that Ukraine can never become a member of the defense alliance. An organization like NATO, which upholds international law and thus the right of all states to freely choose an alliance, cannot publicly make such a promise to Russia and thereby bypass Kiev. That would run counter to all of their principles. However, it is also obvious that Ukraine, in its current domestic political constitution and in view of its hot territorial conflicts with Russia, has no chance of joining NATO in the foreseeable future.
Of course, Putin also knows all of this. De facto, he has long been a part of Ukraine’s possible NATO membership because Russia is occupying Ukrainian territory. In addition, Putin uses the complaint by EU representatives that Biden is negotiating bilaterally, over the heads of the Europeans with Russia via the Ukraine and thus on European security issues. That is not true, because the Europeans are involved in the talks with Moscow through NATO and the OSCE, even if the EU as an institution is not involved. But the complaints from Brussels are driving a wedge between the US and at least some European allies.
And Putin has clearly achieved another goal, as evidenced by the phone call on Thursday: The American president is forced to deal with him, regardless of Christmas rest. Biden’s plan to park Russia in a lonely parking lot and forget it doesn’t work.