Ukraine before the security conference: There is a lack of ammunition and perspectives

A year ago, Ukraine was the focus at the Munich Security Conference, this year it has to fight for attention. There is a lack of successes, soldiers, ammunition – and support.

Ukrainians no longer talk about victory as often. The Ukrainian president recently stated this in one of his video speeches. Ukraine’s failed summer offensive had a negative impact on the mood in the country, stated Volodymyr Zelensky.

Among other things, he justified the dismissal of his commander-in-chief Valeriy Zalushnyj. A new military leadership should now solve the diverse problems of the Ukrainian army. But Ukraine cannot solve the biggest problems on its own. They are in Brussels and Washington and are called Donald Trump and 155-millimeter artillery ammunition.

Ukraine has to fight for attention

The topic of ammunition production for Ukraine was discussed a year ago on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Even back then, there was a great lack of understanding in expert circles. Even back then it was said that production capacities urgently needed to be expanded. But security experts unanimously criticized the political will. A year has passed since then. A year in which the EU announced one million artillery shells and then failed to deliver them.

American military support has been stuck for months. In Washington, Ukraine has now become an object of domestic political dispute. While the country was still in focus at the Munich Security Conference a year ago, today Ukraine has to fight for attention, money and weapons more than ever. This has resulted in a devastating ammunition shortage of around six to one at the front.

Even for Minimum defense hardly any ammunition

Supporters of Ukraine in Europe are now calling for a stop to deliveries of ammunition to third countries, to buy additional ammunition from partner countries and to prepare if the USA ceases to be a supporter in the future.

If all announced deliveries actually arrive, military expert Gustav Gressel and data analyst Marcus Welsch still expect an acute shortage of ammunition even for “minimal defense” in the first few months of this year, reports the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

Ukraine is trying to address the shortage with FPV drones. But experts argue about whether artillery fire can be replaced by small, cheap drones. Meanwhile, on the front in eastern Ukraine, soldiers are bracing themselves against Russian superiority. Not only do they have little material, they also have far fewer people available. For months they have been publicly complaining about fatigue and asking for a replacement.

lack of perspective spreads

In Kiev, however, everyday life has partially returned. Domestic politics is back, and politicians have been arguing about a new mobilization law for months. It is currently not expected to come into force until April. Many men are afraid, some are hiding. The time of long queues in front of the enlistment offices is a thing of the past. Exhaustion and a lack of prospects take hold.

According to a survey from December, 19 percent are willing to cede territory if there is a real chance of peace. But that doesn’t exist at the moment. Russia wants a ceasefire to replenish its resources, says Ihor Zhovkva, deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office. “Then they will continue their aggression against Ukraine,” the foreign politician is convinced.

“Nobody wants to fight to the last soldier”

Meanwhile, Christoph Heusgen, head of the Munich Security Conference and long-time advisor to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is thinking out loud on German television about having to find an end to this war. Something like Minsk will result, says Heusgen, referring to two weak agreements from 2014 and 2015 that were never implemented and, above all, violated dozens of times by Russia. Is the West repeating its past mistakes?

“There will be no Minsk III. Never,” says Schwowka. “Do you know how many rounds of negotiations there were for the Minsk agreements? 185 rounds that led to what we have now.” But the agreements would have given Ukraine time to become stronger, says the former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, who is known for his emotions. “No one in Ukraine wants to fight this war to the last soldier,” Melnyk told ntv earlier this month.

“Western partners’ lack of planning”

The pressure on Ukraine is increasing and Daria Kalenyuk is worried. Kalenyuk normally fights against corruption in Kiev. But for two years she has been lobbying the West for a Ukrainian victory. It’s a battle against windmills. Kalenyuk accuses the western partner countries of lacking a plan.

“The Biden administration had no Plan B if Ukraine didn’t collapse after three days,” she says. “And now she doesn’t have a plan. Ukraine shouldn’t lose, but neither should Russia.” The federal government would take its cue from its American partners and be too cautious, says Kalenjuk.

Negotiations about Security guarantees

Before the Munich Security Conference – which begins on Friday – the Ukrainian president is scheduled to visit France and Germany, reports the Bloomberg news agency. Ukraine is currently negotiating security agreements with both countries. But only NATO membership offers real protection. “But before we achieve this goal, we need a system of security agreements,” says Zhovkva, who negotiates the agreements with the G7 countries for Ukraine.

However, critics consider the agreement already signed with Great Britain to be weak. It doesn’t offer real protection, they say. It only states the extent of the support so far. And in recent years this has repeatedly proven to be too little and too slow.

Fear of negotiations

In order to prevent it from being forced to the negotiating table under massive pressure, Ukraine is counting on a peace summit that will soon take place in Switzerland – for the time being without Russia. “Russia is breaking every single point of the Ukrainian president’s peace formula,” says Schowka from the Ukrainian presidential office. Pressure must therefore be exerted on Russia together with the West and the countries of the global south. But Russia is far from international isolation.

Kalenyuk is afraid that Ukraine is losing the war and warns of increasing internal tensions among the population. But the optimists in Kiev and the western capitals believe that Ukraine just has to survive this year “somehow”. They don’t say how. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly admits that he has not yet achieved his war goals in Ukraine.