Two days before the election, this Friday marks the end of the official campaign period in France for all 38 lists in the running. From midnight Saturday June 8, the distribution of electoral documents and the broadcast of propaganda messages will be prohibited.
We have collected for you the results of recent surveys carried out by various institutes such as Ifop-Fiducial, OpinionWay, Elabe and Harris Interactive. The chart included in this article provides a visual overview of voting intentions for the European elections, based on different institutes and opposition scenarios.
These last few days have been decisive for all the lists, with political debates, meetings and prospecting actions to present their programs and convince voters who are still undecided.
Voting intentions in the 2024 European elections
The participation index in the European election in France has increased by 4 points since the beginning of May, going from 47 to 51%, it has continually increased in recent days allowing it to exceed the 50% mark and d ‘have a crossing of the curves with that of abstention.
The National Rally still so high
The latest polls published in recent days before the June 9 election date place the National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella, in the favorite position. According to the various polling institutes, the National Rally is estimated at more than 30% of voting intentions. According to the Elabe polling institute, Jordan Bardella’s party is estimated at 33%.
Voters’ certainty regarding their intention to vote for the RN list vacillates around 88%. If this result were to be confirmed, the National Rally would obtain 31 seats in the European Parliament, or 8 more than in the 2019 election.
By default, we present to you the latest surveys published by Opinion way. By clicking on the drop-down menu of the graph, you can view the results according to other institutes.
A hope on the side of Renaissance
The official campaign week was decisive for Valérie Hayer, head of the Renaissance list. She was able to count on the moral and physical support of the presidential majority during various events, debates, interventions on television and radio sets. A little-known candidate, she is now being put forward to counter the offensive led by the National Rally. She was able to gather an electorate, which will be her main support during these elections. According to the Elabe polling institute, the Renaissance party obtained 16% of voting intentions, or more than 3 percentage points more than the Socialist Party-Public Square list led by Raphaël Glucksmann. However, she lags significantly behind the list led by Jordan Bardella.
The security of choice in the election of voters for the Renaissance list is around 84%. If this result were to be confirmed, the Renaissance party would obtain 14 seats in the European Parliament, or 9 fewer than in the 2019 election.
The points battle for LFI
In the home stretch to gain valuable points, the different parties are fighting to stand out two days before the election. In this tight context, La France insoumise, led by Manon Aubry, posted a score of 8%, which places it in the lead. Followed by the Republicans, who remain at 7%, as well as the environmentalists (ex-EELV) with also 7% of voting intentions, according to Harris Interactive. Reconquest, in the shadow of the National Rally, has barely progressed and put forward its various objectives and projects, with a trend around 5 to 6%.