Before the run-off election at the weekend, Turkish President Erdogan is getting tailwind: The third-placed candidate in the first round of voting, Ogan, has made a recommendation for Erdogan. Observers dispute whether voters will follow her.
Third-place finisher in Turkey’s first round of presidential elections has expressed support for incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the runoff: Sinan Ogan called on his voters to vote for Erdogan in the May 28 elections. Observers had assumed that most of the voters for the right-wing candidate would switch to the Erdogan camp anyway.
“I declare that we will support Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the candidate of the People’s Alliance, in the second round of the elections,” Ogan told reporters, referring to the electoral alliance of his AKP party and nationalist and Islamist parties. “We believe our decision will be the right decision for our country and our nation.”
Not a foregone conclusion
It is disputed whether Ogan’s public election recommendation actually has an influence on the voter decision. Despite Ogan’s support for Erdogan, experts do not consider it a foregone conclusion that all of the right-wing man’s supporters are now defecting to the president. Some might gravitate toward Erdogan’s challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, while others might choose to stay home on the day of the runoff.
However, Erdogan’s ruling AKP party and its nationalist and Islamist allies were able to defend their majority in the parliamentary elections held at the same time on May 14. This could increase Erdogan’s chances of re-election, as voters could opt for him to avoid partisan fragmentation in government and parliament.
Erdogan received around 49.5 percent of the votes in the first round on May 14, but missed the absolute majority of over 50 percent required for re-election. Kilicdaroglu followed in second place with 44.9 percent of the votes, while Ogan came in third with 5.17 percent.
Ogan as a possible kingmaker
Ogan thus plays the role of possible kingmaker in the runoff between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. Ogan is backed by an anti-immigrant party and has attracted voters unhappy with Erdogan’s policies but also unwilling to support Kilicdaroglu, who leads the Kemalist social democratic party CHP.
In interviews with Turkish media, Ogan named conditions for an election recommendation: he demanded a tough stance against the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party PKK and a time frame for the deportation of millions of refugees from Turkey, including almost 3.7 million Syrians, Ogan explained.
Erdogan does not want to bow to Ogan’s demands
In an interview with CNN International, however, Erdogan stated that he would not bow to Ogan’s demands. “I’m not a person who negotiates in that way,” he said. “It will be the people who are the kingmaker.” Last Friday, however, there was a surprising one-hour meeting between Erdogan and Ogan in Istanbul, about which no details were made public.
Kilicdaroglu, too, intensified his rhetoric, apparently hoping for votes from the nationalist camp, and announced that if he won the election he would send back millions of refugees. He also ruled out the possibility of peace negotiations with militant Kurds.