After 20 years in power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to face a runoff election for the first time. With about 95 percent of the ballot boxes counted in Germany and about 37 percent abroad, Erdoğan has 49.49 percent of the votes, said the head of the YSK electoral authority, Ahmet Yener, in Ankara on Monday morning (as of 3 a.m. CEST). Opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu came to 44.79 percent.
Both missed the absolute majority and will probably have to go to a runoff on May 28th. Voters with a Turkish passport in Germany and other countries would be able to cast their votes between May 20 and 24.
Final results have not yet been announced. It is unclear when this can be expected. Should there be a runoff election, it would not only be the first for Erdoğan, but also for challenger Kılıçdaroğlu – and for the citizens. The Turkish president has only been directly elected by the people since 2014. The parliamentary elections show that Erdoğan’s government alliance can defend its majority.
The presidential election was seen as pointing the way. It is feared that the NATO country could become even more autocratic for another five years under Erdogan. Kilicdaroglu ran as a candidate for a broad coalition of six parties. He promises a return to a parliamentary system, democracy and the rule of law. The developments in Turkey were also closely observed internationally because of their importance for conflicts in the region such as the Syrian war and for the relationship with the EU and Germany.
The candidate of an ultra-nationalist party alliance, Sinan Oğan, who is far behind in third place, could play an important role before a runoff election. Although he only won 5.3 percent of the vote, his voters could be crucial. It is eagerly awaited which election recommendation he makes. Oğan announced that he would explore how to proceed with his supporters. “Our people can rest easy. We will never allow Turkey to fall into a crisis.”
Why Erdoğan was initially further ahead
In the evening and at night there were different interpretations of the interim counts. Erdoğan had seen the first results at a greater distance. However, the state news agency Anadolu first published the results in Erdoğan strongholds. In the course of the evening, Erdoğan’s share of the vote fell, but so slowly that the impression quickly gained that the incumbent president had performed better than expected.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a member of Kılıçdaroğlu’s CHP, said that the Islamic conservative AKP in opposition strongholds deliberately objected to the results. This makes counting slower and the result is initially in favor of the government. A CHP spokesman accused Anadolu of “manipulation” in the evening. CHP politicians repeatedly appeared in front of the cameras and presented their own numbers, according to which Kılıçdaroğlu was ahead. During the night, however, the pro-opposition news agency Anka Erdoğan also saw things ahead.
Incidents at several polling stations
Hundreds of thousands of government and opposition observers were deployed in Turkey. According to the electoral authorities, the election of parliament and the president went off without major problems, although incidents were reported at several polling stations.
The pro-Kurdish opposition party HDP of the German Press Agency confirmed a media report according to which election observers from the sister party YSP were attacked in the south-eastern Turkish city of Mardin. The dispute broke out after observers denied more than one family member access to the polling booth.
A CHP deputy also shared a video showing rows of ballot papers being stamped for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Şanlıurfa in southeastern Turkey. However, it could not be verified when and where the recordings were made, or whether the ballot papers were real.