Challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is battered in the second ballot. Even if he were to succeed in defeating Erdoğan, his room for maneuver would be limited – and he would hardly be able to fulfill his most important campaign promise.
As always, the market’s reaction, sober by nature, pointed in the emerging direction. Fearing that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could rule Turkey for another five years, the Istanbul stock exchange collapsed the morning after the election and even had to temporarily close. The exchange rate of the already battered Turkish lira also remained in the basement on Monday. The market’s message was clear: Erdoğan’s unconventional – some say irresponsible – interest rate and currency policy is bringing Turkey to the brink of economic collapse. But precisely this policy, according to the analysts and financial brokers, will hardly change fundamentally in the coming years.