In Sochi, Russia’s President Putin is receiving his Turkish counterpart Erdogan today. A new edition of the grain agreement will probably be the focus of the talks.
Last year, the Presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, met four times in person within four months – but not since last October. It’s been four years since Putin traveled to Turkey. Erdogan has been to Russia several times since then. That’s probably why he announced Putin’s visit to Turkey in July, full of conviction: “Next month, President Putin will pay a visit to Turkey.”
August passed, only the guest from Russia didn’t come. On the one hand, for obvious reasons, Putin probably doesn’t like flying at the moment – or even leaves the Kremlin at all. On the other hand, the Turkish-Russian relationship is worse than it has been since 2015, when the Turkish military shot down a Russian fighter jet in the Turkish-Syrian border area.
Pinpricks from Ankara
This time it was verbal bullets from the Turkish side that hit Putin, like this during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Istanbul in early July: “Ukraine undoubtedly deserves to join NATO,” Erdogan said at the time. From the Russian point of view, however, the peak of the provocation may have been that Zelenskyj left Turkey accompanied by five Ukrainian commanders who were taken to Turkey as prisoners of war and were supposed to stay there until the end of the war, at least according to the Russian interpretation.
The fact that Erdogan gave up his opposition to Sweden joining NATO, on the other hand, is unlikely to have upset Moscow. A few days later, Russia got out of the grain agreement. In mid-August, the Russian Navy opened fire on a Turkish cargo ship in the Black Sea to force it to stop.
For Erdogan, it’s about more
Now, with his trip to Sochi, Erdogan is moving towards Putin again, at least physically. This is particularly noteworthy because both presidents represent cultures in which reaching out to the other is seen as a weakness. But for Erdogan it is about more than the bilateral relationship. He helped negotiate the grain agreement and received a lot of recognition for it – in the world, but also among voters at home. A reissue would be something like a second harvest. That is why the topic is high on the agenda in Sochi.
The foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey, Sergei Lavrov and Hakan Fidan, met in Moscow at the end of the week to prepare for the meeting of the presidents. Turkey is making intensive efforts to reintroduce the grain agreement, Fidan said afterwards: “We are currently trying to understand the arguments and demands put forward by Russia and, if necessary, to fulfill them.”
Many hurdles – UN demands conclusion
It is important to prevent the repetition of glitches and discrepancies that occurred during the first phase. “Our goal is a more sustainable grain deal.” Russia complains that it is not benefiting from the grain agreement itself. Because this should facilitate the export of certain products that are not subject to EU sanctions, such as fertilizers in third countries. One problem seems to be that shipowners find it difficult to insure their ships for such transactions. A new edition of the grain agreement could possibly start here.
The United Nations had already negotiated the first grain agreement with Turkey. UN Secretary-General António Guterres submitted a number of proposals to Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov in the hope of getting Russia back on board.
Both sides could benefit
According to Ömer Celik, spokesman for Turkey’s ruling AKP party, eyes should still be on Erdogan: “In order to save the world from a food crisis, our president has so far taken the initiative with the greatest diplomatic sensitivity. ”
If it were possible to reactivate the grain agreement, both Putin and Erdogan would benefit: the Russian president would not have to be accused of putting up with a global hunger crisis with the war against Ukraine. Erdogan would gain in importance on the world political stage, which should be of use to him when it comes to asserting Turkey’s interests with its partners in the West. A prospect that should make it easier for him to accept the shame that it is he who is traveling to Putin instead of the other way around.