Since Sweden, together with Finland, submitted its application to NATO headquarters in Brussels in May 2022 in response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, many, many texts have been written that predicted final breakthroughs or points in time when Turkey would actually , if not definitely, will give their consent. This journalistic genre is now over. On Tuesday evening, the Turkish parliament in Ankara approved Sweden’s NATO membership.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently said that he was very confident that Sweden would be at the table as the 32nd member at the alliance summit in July. Of course, he had formulated this in a very similar way before the Vilnius summit in July 2023 and also in the autumn, without much having happened in each case. Like last summer, Erdoğan repeatedly followed up his half-promises with periods of waiting in which he demanded further steps from Sweden.
Türkiye is demanding more toughness from Sweden against suspected terrorists
Officially, Ankara always justified its long hesitation by saying that the Swedish government was far too lax in dealing with alleged terrorists. Turkey classified the Kurdish PKK as a terrorist organization years ago, as did the USA and the EU. However, Sweden has granted asylum to many Kurds of Turkish origin.
Erdoğan has said several times that Sweden is the main refuge for “these terrorists.” The government in Stockholm then tightened its terror laws last spring, but this did not make the government in Ankara relent. For example, Erdoğan gave the Swedes a list of people he would like to see extradited to Turkey.
In the fall, Erdoğan sent the Swedish proposal to parliament for ratification. But after the PKK killed nine Turkish soldiers in Iraq shortly after New Year’s Eve and PKK sympathizers beat up a colorful Erdoğan doll at a demonstration in Gothenburg, it was not assumed in Sweden that the Turkish parliament would vote immediately after the end of the winter break . In addition, it was not clear what signals Erdoğan would receive from Washington regarding what he wanted F-16fighter jets – he had quite openly made their delivery from the USA a condition. They were perhaps even more important to him than some of the demonstrations in Stockholm.
And now? All’s well that ends well? Not quite, after all, Erdoğan still has to sign. If he wanted, he could take his time with it. Unlikely, but at least the president has been delaying the whole Swedes thing since 2022. And the approval of the Hungarian Parliament is still missing. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has said several times that they will not be the last country to sign the Swedish request. However, the Hungarian MPs are currently on winter break until February. When the government agenda for the spring meeting was published last week, there was no mention of the vote on Sweden’s NATO membership.
Orbán’s office said Sweden “does not appear to prioritize NATO membership” and has done nothing to increase confidence in the country’s suitability for membership. On Tuesday morning, Orbán suddenly announced that he had invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to Budapest to “negotiate” on the NATO issue. And the Social Democratic opposition also called an unscheduled parliamentary session on Tuesday morning over the Swedish proposal.
The next regular NATO summit will take place in Washington from July 9th to 11th. The partners want to celebrate the defense alliance’s 75th birthday there. Let’s see whether 31 or, with Sweden, actually 32 delegations will raise their glasses.