When Angela Merkel flies to Istanbul this Saturday, an old, maybe even good, but certainly not always beloved friend will be waiting for her: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The Turk has been in power longer than the German Chancellor, who has been in office for 16 years. Erdoğan has been determining the fate of his country for almost 20 years, and with increasing authority.
The Chancellor, who is currently on a farewell tour through various countries, has experience in dealing with the often difficult man in Ankara. She mediated in the Mediterranean dispute between Turkey and Greece. She brought the EU’s refugee agreement with Turkey on the way and will now certainly talk to Erdoğan about the continuation of the six billion euro agreement – Brussels wants to inject another three billion for a new edition.
Merkel will also know that Ankara is very likely planning a new military operation in Syria and thus a new dispute with the USA is programmed – Washington supports the Syrian Kurds. And with all that she will hardly forget that the relationship between Germany and Turkey is more than just a relationship between two countries: Millions of people in Germany have family roots in Turkey, which is why Erdoğan likes Turkish domestic politics and the election campaign as well can spill over to Germany.
Erdoğan recently fell asleep while giving a speech
According to Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert, a more amicable meeting is imminent: “For this reason, as the German government, close, constructive and trusting cooperation with Turkey is important.” Close and constructive, that’s not easy in relation to Ankara.
How Erdoğan now governs can be seen in the growing repression, the imprisonment of political opponents, the dismantling of the rule of law and freedom of expression. It can be seen in foreign policy, in which Ankara offends the USA and NATO by buying weapons in Russia, provoking allies with solo efforts and military actions – whether in Iraq, Libya or Syria – and openly with its own NATO partner Greece in the Mediterranean Gun violence threatens.
Merkel, however, comes at a time when Erdoğan looks battered: not only politically, but apparently also in terms of health. The 67-year-old, who has ruled the country as Prime Minister since 2002 and President since 2014, recently fell asleep during a speech. He had to have answers whispered to him during a TV interview. Recent attempts by his media advisors to show the populist with activities in front of the camera as a perfectly healthy man failed. Most recently the president played basketball. The scene with the throw on the basket had a bizarre appearance.
Discontinued model instead of an all-powerful statesman
The paralyzing economy, in particular, has made Erdoğan appear to be almost obsolete and no longer the omnipotent and all-responsible statesman as whom he had been presented for almost two decades. The closeness to the people, for which the savvy speaker was known, is lost: the impression is that Erdoğan governs with a tiny circle of advisors, does not want to hear contradictions and has lost contact with the citizens, but also with his ruling party, the AKP.
At the same time, a good number of the 80 million Turks feel that they are worse off every day. The country has not recovered economically. Inflation is around 20 percent, the currency lira is worth less and less, and imports are becoming more expensive. In addition, there is Corona with the known consequences for the economy, the number of new infections every day is more than 30,000.
There are reports in the media about students camping in parks and forests because of the lack of housing, or about the increasing number of impoverished people who commit suicide. At the same time, the mafia boss Sedat Peker, who fled the country, was able to spread for weeks on the Internet how members of the political elite get rich. Beijing’s YouTube show achieved audience ratings in the millions. Counter-evidence for the serious allegations, which range from corruption to drug trafficking to rape and murder, is still a long way off.
The only thing missing now is the right candidate for the opposition
Erdoğan’s earlier miracle cure – the megalomaniacal expansion of the infrastructure with roads, bridges, airports – no longer works. Work on the “Istanbul Canal”, announced by the President as “my crazy project”, is not getting off the ground. The ambitious construction project for a “second Bosporus” between the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea has so far not gotten beyond laying the foundation stone for a bridge. And the canal is met with massive criticism from environmentalists and civil society because of the ecological risks.
Finally the refugee crisis: the mood is turning. The country is home to 3.7 million Syrians and hundreds of thousands of other Arabs, Africans and Afghans. Now that new refugee movements are emerging after the Taliban came to power in Kabul, Turks are reacting with rejection of migrants, especially from Afghanistan. They have not forgotten that the loudest proponent of a policy of open borders for suffering Muslims – the Syrians at the time – was Erdoğan.
All of this is reflected in the opinion polls. One should approach the pollsters with caution and not write off Erdoğan prematurely. But according to most institutes, the AKP has fallen below 30 percent. Erdoğan is persistent, at the same time shows himself supple in changing allegedly brazen positions. But the opposition from the CHP, Iyi party and smaller parties is gaining support against Erdoğan and his semi-fascist partner from the MHP. The only thing missing now is the right candidate for the opposition.