Troop withdrawal in Mali: The dispute that remains

Even after the decision to withdraw the German armed forces from Mali, the dispute between the foreign and defense ministries continues to smolder. No wonder, after all it is a question of principle.

Under no circumstances should a troop withdrawal be based on calendar dates, but on the conditions on the ground – this has always been the mantra of the federal government in Afghanistan. And so there was blatant criticism from Germany when first US President Donald Trump and then his successor Joe Biden tied the withdrawal to specific dates. In Biden’s case, to something as highly symbolic as 9/11.

Now, however, the traffic light coalition in Mali is doing the same thing. By declaring that the Bundeswehr will have left the country by May 2024, but before that will help secure the important presidential election in February 2024. This is also a date with symbolic power.

Dispute between foreign and defense ministries

They are not disappearing now, as some would have wanted, “holterdiepolter from Mali,” Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the Defense Committee, praises the compromise. The Union, on the other hand, considers the argument that they want to secure elections shortly before the final withdrawal to be “far-fetched”.

In fact, the question arises as to how a retreating Bundeswehr, which is only likely to be on site in February 2024 with a greatly reduced number of troops, can and wants to play a protective role in the planned presidential election. From a military point of view, the guiding principle applies: “You are most vulnerable when you are retreating”.

But not only with regard to the troops, but also regarding the traffic light coalition, a whole series of questions remain unanswered: Superficially, the Mali compromise, which came about under pressure from the Chancellery, seems to be the dispute between Annalena Baerbock’s Foreign Office and Christine Lambrecht’s Ministry of Defense over ” Remove or stay” defused. But at the next opportunity it could flare up again.

A question of principle

The Green Foreign Minister hastened to assure the United Nations in the Bundestag that “UN peacekeeping missions remain a central component of foreign, development and security policy”. At all costs, Baerbock wants to avoid the impression that Germany is no longer a reliable partner when it comes to foreign commitments.

The SPD-led Ministry of Defense, on the other hand, had pushed for a quick withdrawal from Mali, fearing for the safety of the soldiers. The fundamental question of whether Germany should increasingly withdraw from the world and, in view of the Russian threat, concentrate very heavily on national and NATO alliance defense is obviously assessed differently here than in the Federal Foreign Office. In any case, the Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, Eberhard Zorn, seems to have exactly this line in mind, as emerges from a strategy paper reported by “Spiegel”.

“I think there is an exaggerated desire to bring all the soldiers home from foreign missions and fill up the troops here,” warns the research director at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Christian Mölling. The question arises as to whether Germany’s security would be satisfied if all German soldiers were withdrawn from operations, says Mölling. Foreign Minister Baerbock is likely to see things similarly.

Plans for new EU training mission in Niger

This fundamental question could arise again very soon for the traffic light: namely, when a decision has to be made about the next possible military mission in the same region. “We can’t leave there completely,” warns the FDP politician Strack-Zimmermann in an interview with the ARD Capital Studio. She warns that you have to stay where you are if you don’t want to see many refugees on the Sahel route. “And especially if we don’t want to experience the terror again that we had in Berlin, Brussels, Paris and London.” Foreign Minister Baerbock also stressed in the Bundestag that the commitment in the Sahel would be “reorganized”.

If Mali fails as a country of assignment, then the neighboring country Niger, in which the Europeans are already active, is a good choice. There are currently plans to set up a new EU training mission there. “We should get involved,” advises Strack-Zimmermann. But it’s not that far yet. And the impact on key country Mali would be extremely limited from Niger.

However, if the UN mission called MINUSMA does not succeed in closing the gap torn by the Germans and Europeans and in continuing the mission after 2024, the security situation threatens to tip over. And then there is the so often mentioned danger that the terrorist militias will gain the upper hand – and at the same time the field will be left to the Russian mercenaries already in the country.