“This verdict is a disgrace! “, denounced Donald Trump after being found responsible for sexual assault by a civil court in New York on Tuesday. The former president suffered his first judicial conviction, while he is being prosecuted in several cases ranging from his role in the assault on the Capitol in 2021 to the concealment of classified documents. His campaign team immediately said he will appeal the decision.
But this first conviction raises questions about the political future of the former president of the United States, accustomed to scandals. Is he the first American president to experience this type of legal setback? What reactions can we expect from the two main political parties in the United States? And what political future can he still dream of? 20 minutes takes stock for you thanks to the insight of Olivier Richomme, lecturer in American civilization at the University Lumière Lyon-2.
Is this court decision exceptional in the United States?
“It is indeed an exceptional decision, it has never happened. But this is often the case with Donald Trump, ”underlines Olivier Richomme. Indeed, the list of cases in which the former real estate magnate plays the pioneer is particularly long. On Tuesday, he was found responsible for the 1996 sexual assault of former journalist E. Jean Carroll, to whom he will have to pay five million dollars in damages.
Already at the end of March, Donald Trump was charged with criminal charges, in particular suspected of having bought the silence of a porn actress with whom he allegedly had sex in the run-up to the 2016 elections. In January 2021, he faced a second impeachment procedure in Congress.
Each time is a first for a president – or a former president – of the United States. “In many cases, he is the first in the history of the United States. It is one of a kind”, notes the teacher-researcher in American civilization at the University Lumière Lyon-2. Novelty after novelty, scandal after scandal, Donald Trump has however managed to establish himself in the American political landscape. “Until then, he had never been found guilty, but this event is part of a political and identity crisis in the United States that has lasted for a long time,” notes Olivier Richomme.
How might Republicans and Democrats react?
As usual with every scandal, the former president evokes a “political persecution”. “The endless witch hunt of the Democratic Party (…) reached a new level today,” reacted his campaign team on Tuesday. Despite his legal setbacks, Donald Trump remains well ahead in the polls for the Republican primary, 31 points ahead of his main rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, according to a Yahoo News-YouGov early April poll. However, this popularity with Republican voters ensures him tacit support from his party. “His electoral base is quite large and, as long as it is, the Republicans will stay behind him”, analyzes Olivier Richomme. Because since the arrival of this free electron in American politics, “the party has gradually been mistaken. Some Republican executives have left. But those who remain have little political courage, they will not dare to raise their voices as long as they seem to be in the race electorally”.
For their part, the Democrats have been highlighting the pans of Donald Trump since his arrival on the political spectrum. “They will probably try to capitalize on this court decision. But there is no certainty that it will work”, underlines Olivier Richomme. “Each party addresses its type of voters. American politics is incredibly polarized. It’s like silos: people don’t talk to each other anymore, don’t consult the same media, don’t live in the same states, ”deciphers the expert on American civilization again. As early as 2016, Donald Trump was pinned for his sexism as in a video in which he claimed that “when you are a star”, women “let you do everything” and “you can grab them by the pussy”. Seven years and a string of slippages later, “it is therefore difficult to imagine a voter waking up today and estimating that this is the last straw”, slice Olivier Richomme.
Can Donald Trump’s political career be ruined as he seeks a second term?
“What characterizes the political career of Donald Trump is precisely that nothing seems to reach him! It is certain that this will not prevent him from continuing his campaign since nothing has prevented him so far, ”analyzes Olivier Richomme. Even more surprisingly, his legal setbacks could breathe new life into his campaign. “When he was indicted by the Manhattan prosecutor, he took off in the Republican primary polls and his fundraising too”, illustrates the specialist from the United States. “With Donald Trump, we are in the world upside down. Any other candidate would have been sidelined by so much business long ago. But in his case, there may be no political consequences. Even that they are positive for him with more donors for his fundraising, for example”, explains Olivier Richomme.
In France, a sentence of ineligibility can be imposed for a maximum period of five years in the event of a misdemeanor and ten years in the event of a crime. In the United States, things are much more complex. Whether it’s his role in the January 6, 2021, Capitol assault, the attempt to obstruct the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, or the concealment of classified government documents, all of these investigations are federal. “A sentence of ineligibility seems very unlikely. It would have to be a federal trial to prevent him from running in federal elections, ”explains Olivier Richomme.
For the moment, the Minister of Justice has refused to attack Donald Trump on his participation in the assault on the Capitol. “It would be very risky and it would look a lot like a political attack”, underlines the expert from the United States before adding: “It is the political question and the public which will decide. And so far, Donald Trump has continued to enjoy great popularity across the Atlantic.