Foreign Minister Baerbock took a day and a half to promote peace in Armenia and Azerbaijan. She encounters a country in shock and a victorious power full of accusations.
An earth wall towers 70 meters in front of Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. On the slope, in the shadow of the morning sun, you can see a Christ cross made of white stones. This is where Armenia ends. Behind it begins Nakhichevan, an exclave of Azerbaijan’s hostile neighbor.
A few hundred meters further on, two flags can be seen on rocky hills and an Azerbaijani military post can be seen. Baerbock has EU observers explain that shots were fired at the building next to her from there in June. She is surrounded by her employees, journalists and security guards.
Firefights and mines
The EU mission was created in Armenia a year ago, largely at the initiative of Germany. The Federal Republic provides the head and most of the employees. The reason was an advance by the Azerbaijani armed forces into Armenian territory in September 2022.
Where one side maintains a military post along the border, there is usually an enemy post hidden not far away.
The EU observers report that exchanges of fire occur again and again. Farmers cultivate their fields on the often unclear border line in constant fear of shots being fired. In addition, there are mines that were laid to protect against Azerbaijani attacks, but also threaten their own population.
“Eyes and ears” of the EU
The task of the unarmed EU observers is to be the “eyes and ears” of the EU. And their presence is intended to calm the situation and, in the best case, to prevent Azerbaijan from a new major attack like in 2022. What is missing so far is contact with the Azerbaijani side. The government in Baku had rejected an EU presence on its side. There is also no hotline yet.
Baerbock is committed to such a direct connection for incidents. In the EU, Germany is campaigning for a further increase in the mission.
Values partner in the midst of crises
Five weeks after the flight of more than 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, the military situation is calm. There is currently no sign of Azerbaijani troops on the Armenian borders, local media quoted a member of parliament as saying before Baerbock’s arrival in Yerevan.
But in Armenia people don’t trust the calm. Still under the shock of recent events, the will is maturing to catch up economically and militarily in order to at least raise the price of attacks so high that Azerbaijan refrains from doing so in the long term.
But until then, Armenia is dependent on international support and attention. Left alone by its ally Russia, Armenia turns to Europe and hopes for military support.
Baerbock presented Germany as a balanced broker for peace in her talks with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirsoyan. She called Armenia a partner of values in a geopolitically difficult situation. At a press conference she addressed her counterpart as Du.
Germany is giving another 9.3 million euros in humanitarian aid to support the newcomers from Nagorno-Karabakh. Germany also supplies urgently needed things such as ultrasound machines and surgical instruments. The Green politician cited gradual visa liberalization as a step towards Armenia’s rapprochement with the EU.
Neutral position
However, she also emphasized that Germany and the EU stand on the side of both countries, i.e. Armenia and Azerbaijan, for a peace solution in order to clarify the controversial questions regarding border demarcation, the opening of transport routes and the exchange of prisoners of war. She did not answer a question about possible sanctions against Azerbaijan at the press conference.
Baerbock presented a decidedly different position than France, whose government has just concluded military cooperation with Armenia including the supply of military equipment for air defense, which has appointed a defense attaché in Yerevan and a consul in the Armenian border region of Syunik. A joint visit with her counterpart Catherine Colonna was out of the question because she would hardly have been received in Baku.
Baerbock’s counterattack
But Baerbock’s reception in the Azerbaijani capital was not particularly warm either. While Baerbock’s pictures with President Ilham Aliyev suggested a friendly exchange, the meeting with her counterpart Dschejhun Bajramov apparently got down to business. In any case, the subsequent press conference in the Foreign Ministry hall seemed like the continuation of a hard-fought conversation.
Baerbock with her Azerbaijani counterpart Bajramov in Baku
In his opening statement, Bayramov called it a “very lively exchange of views.” He didn’t miss the opportunity to reprimand Baerbock after her words. He criticized the fact that she had used both Azerbaijani and Armenian names for places in Nagorno-Karabakh, thereby disrespecting Azerbaijan’s sovereignty. The minister countered that Azerbaijan is committed to recognizing minority rights and that this includes naming places in the language of the local population.
Litany of accusations
Baerbock responded with presence of mind to an accusation that an Azerbaijani questioner had read from her cell phone by saying that, unlike in Armenia, she had not visited any Azerbaijani displaced persons. She had just spoken to a representative of the population – civil society – who was born in Armenia and was expelled with his family in the early 1990s. He expressly wanted the people of both states to come together in peace.
Accusations from an Azerbaijani journalist that Germany applies different standards to Azerbaijan than to Israel and bans pro-Palestinian demonstrations in its own country were countered by Baerbock with a dedicated short lesson in international law and democracy.
In the conflict with his neighbor, Bajramov also made accusations against Armenia, one of which was the contamination of large areas of land with mines, which repeatedly lead to accidents with serious injuries and deaths. Baerbock announced German support, specifically the financing of the NGO “Mines Advisory Group” for mine clearance in Azerbaijan.
Cold power politics
Between all the allegations, Bayramov showed willingness to engage in dialogue with Armenia about the planned peace agreement. He mentioned a recent meeting with his Armenian counterpart in Tehran. It took place in a format with Russia, Turkey and Iran – with Armenia as a young democracy between aggressive regional powers with dictatorial leaders.
President Aliyev had made it clear that the region’s conflicts could be resolved among themselves in the future, without the involvement of EU states and the USA. However, Azerbaijan would welcome investments from the West.
War, crises – no kisses
It cannot be ruled out that, after Aliyev’s two cancellations, there will again be meetings mediated by the EU. In addition, talks between the conflicting parties are ongoing in the background, which suggests that a peace agreement is realistic in the next few months.
As much clarity as Baerbock’s short trip to the South Caucasus brought about the positions of the conflicting parties, one question remained in the room that is currently causing a lot of interest: What was the attempt to kiss by Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlic Radman? Baerbock said in Baku: “We didn’t talk about kissing today.”