A majority in the state parliament without the CSU? Maybe a Bayern traffic light? According to a survey, this can no longer be completely ruled out. And the wish would not be that new, after all, in 2013 a three-party alliance was already thinking about replacing the CSU. But is that even desirable for the state elections in 2023? The SZ asked around at the grassroots level of three parties: the SPD, FDP and the Greens.
With the traffic light, the Third Mayor of Herzogenaurach, Michael Dassler (FDP), already his experiences. In the Middle Franconian city of 23,000 inhabitants, the SPD, FDP and the Greens work together in a three-way alliance – and that works “very well,” says Dassler, 56. There are individual questions on which one takes the liberty of differing opinions, for example in municipal transport policy. However, there was consensus on the main features. Could that also be a model for the state level? Dassler originally comes from a politically rather conservative milieu, before moving to the Liberals he was a member of the CSU for 25 years. But he can well imagine an alliance at the state level. If the “personal chemistry” is right, it is just as conceivable as in Berlin. The fact that the CSU also has to go into the opposition is not a “value in itself”. Bavaria is undisputedly in a good position. Nevertheless, “the opposition would probably also do the CSU some good,” he says.
For it, after such a long time to loosen the black clans and to loosen the CSU from power, would be Karl-Heinz Brauner avowedly “everything is right except the AfD”. Only then should the Greens not allow themselves to be ripped off by the FDP again and the Bavarian SPD should be much fresher, says Brauner, who used to sympathize with the Social Democrats for a long time and has now been on the Rosenheim City Council for the Greens for just as long. In his own words, Brauner would have considered black-green in the meantime to be possible and perhaps even very attractive, but it has meanwhile shown that Prime Minister Markus Söder only wanted to do a little greenwashing of his party with such a project. So the traffic lights are also welcome at the state level – “but if so, then in Bavaria with a green prime minister”.
Ramona Brehm, 31, is an SPD councilor and chimney sweep in Coburg, Upper Franconia. Not least among her customers, she says, she feels a great longing for “more justice” and for “the felt in Bavaria” and the politically deadlocked CSU structures. Then that the political “top dogs make way”. Could that also work with a traffic light in the country? Brehm is not limitlessly optimistic. The FDP feel very committed to “the top earners”. Brehm says that the contact with the FDP in the city is “expandable” – even if the Liberals do have staff with whom one can profitably exchange ideas. But she doesn’t want to exclude anything. “Opposition would not harm the CSU,” she says.
Johannes Espermüller, Veterinarian and FDP city councilor in the Swabian town of Kaufbeuren, can “very well imagine” a traffic light in Bavaria too. However, Espermüller does not yet know whether he should really want it. The first thing to do is to see how a possible traffic light will develop at the federal level. In the city council, for example, they work “very successfully” with the green parliamentary group, because “there are also greens who let you drive your diesel and do it yourself”. And purely in terms of content, the three traffic light parties are “not that far apart”. You just have to approach each other openly and without prejudice, instead of cultivating the old prejudices, says the FPD man Espermüller and emphasizes that this also applies expressly to his own party.
The social democrat Sabine Bachmeier sees there, however, “topics that would take a while to find a common path”. The Burghausen city councilor has an eye on social housing and social policy in general, “in which the market just doesn’t regulate everything well”, even if the FPD keeps saying it. For many people, living has long been “no longer about luxury, but about the nitty-gritty”. You personally are still “not afraid of the FDP,” says Bachmeier, because you can and should talk to each other about these issues. From their point of view, there would be fewer problems with the Greens and “more common headings under which we could gather”. Bachmeier does not think that a Bavarian traffic light at any price, only to finally replace the CSU, is not the right thing to do.
For Stefan Wagener, City Councilor of the Greens in Aschaffenburg in Lower Franconia, the CSU is the big loser in the federal election. For this reason, he also considered a traffic light in Bavaria “quite conceivable”. However, nothing that would be a sure-fire success. Because as far as the FDP is concerned in Bavaria, he is “very skeptical”. When it co-ruled in the Free State with Minister of Economics Martin Zeil, the FDP was at least in charge of the state development program – and that “messed up Bavaria quite a bit,” says Wagener. The CSU, on the other hand, with politicians like Barbara Stamm or Emmi Zeulner, could show people with whom one could very well imagine doing politics together, says Wagener. He considers camp thinking to be outdated, today one has to think pragmatically.
First of all, it is also pragmatic Nils founder, Board member of the FDP in Neumarkt in Upper Palatinate. In principle, the FDP speaks to all democratic parties. The 24-year-old student attests that the three parties in the federal government work together well and can imagine that this “also has an impact as far as Bavaria”. The overlap is still greatest with the CSU. But with Markus Söder at the top, he has his problems – especially with his Corona policy. The curtailment of freedoms, the curfew, that is content that is completely contrary to the FDP, content that Söder in particular represents. The Söder-CSU stands for founder, who was on the state board of the Young Liberals for several years, for an outdated political style. When asked whether a traffic light would be conceivable in Bavaria, he says: “Yes, of course!”
Rita Röhrl of the SPD sees things a little differently. The district administrator of the Lower Bavarian district of Regen considers the traffic light in the federal government to be the best solution. But she can’t imagine doing that in Bavaria, “I still don’t have the imagination”. Basically, she thinks it is positive that majorities beyond the CSU are being considered. But just so that the CSU does not rule? For Röhrl, this is too small a common denominator. “You should never look at coalitions in purely mathematical terms.” In the cities there are few differences between the Greens and the SPD. “But it looks different in the country.” In addition, Röhrl warns against being lulled by the success of the Federal SPD. “The SPD is definitely not a junior partner in Berlin.” In Bavaria that could be the case with the growing Greens in a traffic light. Röhrl wants to have earned government responsibility. “There has to be an increase in votes.”
You can see in Regensburg that the Greens and the SPD do not have to agree in the city either. There the SPD governs with the CSU, FDP, Free Voters and CSB – a coalition that at times looks as if it is based more on a mathematical model than on common content. “I think the SPD is no longer quite as happy with the CSU as a partner,” says Stefan Christoph, Chairman of the Greens parliamentary group. The FDP tipped the scales when the Regensburg coalition was formed – as it is now in the federal government – and it wanted to join forces with the CSU in Regensburg. There are actually enough things in common with the SPD. “I know some SPD district associations, with whom I can well imagine,” says Christoph. And: “A government without the CSU would be good for Bavaria.” There it is again, the common denominator.