Will this still be something? Traffic light coalition members look irritated at the budget poker of Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner and Robert Habeck. Meanwhile, four scenarios are circulating in the background.
Scenario 1: We can do it
How many nights does the night last? It doesn’t matter at all, the center of power at the traffic light will pull through until the agreement is reached. Because it is clear to everyone: failure is not an option, the budget for 2024 must be achieved before Christmas. The loss of reputation would be too great for the coalition, whose image is already tarnished, and the uncertainty in the country and in the economy would be too great. And an even later solution proposal is too risky.
On Saturday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will speak at the SPD federal party conference in Berlin. What if he has nothing to present to his impatient comrades except new empty words of confidence? The Chancellor would be in need of explanation, and problematic proposals could limit his room for maneuver in negotiations. With the result that the tough conversations would become much tougher.
So the traffic light tips jump over their respective shadows. The SPD is shrinking the citizen’s benefit increase. The Greens are postponing basic child welfare. And the FDP is paving the way for a suspension of the debt brake. They are painful compromises, but combined with the clear message: We are rocking it, the situation is too serious for red lines and party constraints. The coalition is operational.
This is also how Scholz, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Lindner (FDP) will frame it at their joint press conference. They stand side by side in the Chancellery in front of the microphones and cameras, as they did after the slap from Karlsruhe almost four weeks ago. There they present a roadmap for how the 2024 budget can be passed this year: The cabinet approves the plans in a circular manner, and the Bundestag and Bundesrat are holding special sessions shortly before Christmas. Annoying, but: The budget with a bow is standing.
Scenario 2: We can’t do it anymore
Scholz, Lindner and Habeck sit together non-stop, but despite all their efforts, they realize: This won’t happen before Christmas. The political differences are too great to find a quick solution. In addition, the agreement must be legally binding. If the new plans end up back before the Constitutional Court, it would be devastating. So the trio postpones further discussions until January.
In order to at least send a signal of reassurance, the three politicians stand in front of the cameras in the Reichstag. Scholz speaks of “very, very good” consultations, no one should worry, the coalition is fully capable of acting. Despite everything, “we have already made progress,” says Habeck. “Great financial art is now required,” says Lindner. Happy Holiday.
But it is now clear to everyone in the coalition: the postponement is politically devastating. A government that cannot even reach a basic agreement on the budget in a major crisis is essentially finished. The alliance will only start 2024 with a provisional budget; every expenditure must now be personally approved by the finance minister. Nobody really knows how things will be governed smoothly. Nobody just wants new elections. Two things are now binding the coalition members together: the fear of an election victory for the AfD. And the realization that the Germans have already experienced so many existential crises in this federal government that one more or less no longer matters. And at least the year ends with good news: the cabinet is spared an embarrassing New Year’s Eve video like last year. Christine Lambrecht is no longer there.
Scenario 3: We can’t manage it anymore, but at least…
At some point during this week, the three traffic light leaders realized: We can’t do it anymore. However, the three chief negotiators – State Minister Wolfgang Schmidt (Chancellery), State Secretary Stefen Saebisch (Finance) and State Secretary Anja Hajduk (Economy) – have worked out a “very, very good solution” (Scholz). The only problem: Unfortunately, it can no longer be fully implemented this year – no longer in all the details, no longer in all procedural steps and certainly not as legally secure as it needs to be in order not to be put in the loop again by the Constitutional Court.
But the three coalition members are absolutely sure of one thing: they won’t be able to get away with Christmas so quickly with sayings from the political poetry album alone. The situation has now become much too complicated for that. So what is needed is at least a clear direction, a clear signal that the traffic light is still capable of acting. What is needed is a fundamental decision!
There are at least three to choose from:
- Germany is tightening its belt! In a budget worth around half a billion euros, it is possible to make single-digit cuts at any time – and that is exactly what we are going to do now: save, save, save. (Please insert 1-3 specific positions here!)
- The situation is serious, we are taking it seriously! Due to (please insert: Ukraine, recession, dilapidated bridges, climate crisis), we will also declare a budget emergency for 2024. We do not do this lightly. And we do this under one clear condition: We will keep our debts in moderation and only take out as many additional loans as a reformed debt brake would allow us.
- We are modernizing the German budget! Together with the Union, this government, in a coalition of Democrats, will anchor a Germany 300 special fund in the Basic Law. Its sole aim is to make our country completely climate neutral by 2040.
We will clarify all the details during January. And now we wish everyone a Happy Advent!
Scenario 4: The liberation strike
No, white smoke will no longer rise from the Chancellery this year, which will plunge the coalition into major turbulence shortly before Christmas. The SPD in particular is losing patience and accusing the finance minister of taking the entire government “hostage” with his debt brake mantra. But the three negotiators remain calm. What only they know is that they are not working on an emergency solution that can somehow plug the billion-dollar hole through a variety of small and medium-sized savings. They want a big solution, involving the largest opposition party.
Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, is already partly involved in the talks. The core of the idea is the creation of a new source of money: a special fund for transformation modeled on the pot for the Bundeswehr. Lavishly equipped, anchored in the Basic Law with a two-thirds majority, therefore immune to a lawsuit in Karlsruhe. A quote from the finance minister from the negotiations is circulating: “This crisis is also an opportunity.” The traffic light wants to change course and finally keep its promise to turn the country around with a construction offensive, a major modernization plan for transport and infrastructure, and new goals for the expansion of wind energy. Greener, faster, more efficient. People are already raving about a kind of “New Deal” in the Chancellery.
The problem: Every day that goes by without a concrete announcement damages the coalition. But no one can give details yet. Scholz, Habeck and Lindner need time. The question now is: Will the three of them be able to do it – or will someone lose patience first?