overview
Status: 11.10.2021 10:18 a.m.
Debt brake, tax increases, wealth tax: if the explorations on the traffic light coalition continue today, these issues will be particularly fought over. That’s what it’s all about in detail.
The exploratory talks go into the next round. There is likely to be a lot of need for discussion, especially in the area of taxes and debts. The Greens co-boss Robert Habeck spoke at the weekend that the topic of finance is of course a “huge problem”. And FDP General Secretary Volker Wissing underlined once again in the “Bild am Sonntag”: “Everyone we talked to knows our demands: no tax increases and no loosening of the debt brake.” It’s all about this:
The cash position
Olaf Scholz is sure of an entry in the history book: never before has a Federal Minister of Finance made so many lousies. The corona pandemic cost the federal government a total of 470 billion euros in additional debt. Aid for industry and trade, short-time work, the vaccine – all of this was paid for on credit. The next federal government is now faced with the Herculean task of getting the budget back in order.
As early as next year, there will be a gap of 100 billion euros in the federal budget. In order to stuff that with loans, the debt brake in the Basic Law has to be suspended for the third time in a row. The federal government does not have any money for any new projects – especially since the corona debts still have to be paid back. And the FDP has declared tax increases a taboo.
What would be possible, for example, would be an increase in the truck toll – that would wash billions into the coffers and would also have an environmental effect, because freight transport on the road would become more expensive. In the long term, too, the federal budget is under massive pressure: Society is aging, which means that the need for subsidies from the social security funds increases by leaps and bounds.
The debt brake
A tempting way out of the precarious budget situation would be to remove the debt brake completely from the constitution. Then the federal government could borrow unlimited fresh money, for example to push investments in climate protection. A two-thirds majority in the Bundestag is required for a change to the Basic Law, and a traffic light coalition cannot achieve that. In addition, the SPD and FDP want to hold on to the debt brake – because budget discipline is the flagship of a solid government. The Greens, on the other hand, believe that climate protection and modernization can only be financed through new loans – they are pushing for an investment clause. Expenditures for the future should no longer count towards the debt brake.
The tax dispute
The SPD and the Greens want to relieve small and medium incomes – and in return get the money back from the wealthy and top earners. Here, too, there is resistance from the FDP: Higher tax rates on large incomes, she says, will affect many companies. It is unlikely that there will be a new version of the wealth tax: it is legally complicated because there have to be exceptions for companies, and its income is not due to the federal government, but to the states.
Of course, the new federal government could theoretically also increase VAT. That would bring the state additional billions, it would hardly affect the economy – but a higher value added tax would be poison, especially for households with low incomes, as the prices for housing and energy are already rising.
And who will be finance minister?
Two names are involved: FDP leader Christian Lindner and the Greens co-chairman Robert Habeck both have ambitions for the office. The post is prestigious and influential. No other cabinet member can spend money without the finance minister. So when ministers rave about investments, funding pots or modernization projects – the Federal Finance Minister often enough brings them back onto the carpet.