Even during the pandemic, many people shopped less. What is different now than then?
In the Corona crisis, demand plummeted because people had little opportunity to spend their money. It was forced consumption. The savings rate was up to 20 percent during the lockdown period; before Corona, people saved an average of only ten to eleven percent of their net income. The background to this new phenomenon is, of course, the current price increase.
We have almost eight percent inflation – but on average incomes will only grow by two to three percent this year. Inflation eats into the wallets of the Germans, many can no longer save. Planning security is currently low, people want to keep their money together – also with a view to any back payments for electricity and gas. It is good that many still have reserves from the Corona period. But that doesn’t apply to everyone.
How soon do you expect a recovery?
To be honest, I’m not very optimistic. Times are very uncertain at the moment and the situation will become more difficult for consumers. Whether the economy recovers and people’s consumption picks up again ultimately depends on energy prices.
In the past few months we have been able to observe the beginnings of this: the 9-euro ticket and the fuel discount have kept inflation lower than in other EU countries. These measures expired in September, so inflation is now likely to make another significant leap.
What measures could help in the winter months?
I am skeptical about the energy price caps that are being discussed, as this is a direct intervention in the market. Direct payments to needy households are more targeted. Financial incentives to save energy could also be interesting. Nevertheless, most of the measures so far are just a drop in the ocean. The winter will be hard for many Germans.
And that at Christmas time – traditionally the best time for trading.
Yes, in fact I fear that Christmas will be no exception this year. Many households have only limited financial possibilities. The Christmas business will certainly be weaker. Trading is in a downward spiral.