Will stay, won’t stay? The future of Élisabeth Borne raises questions at a time when rumors of a reshuffle are buzzing. The question of his possible successor is not obvious.
The sequence questions. Was it an early farewell or a simple gesture of recognition? Everyone will have their own opinion after Emmanuel Macron “particularly” thanked Élisabeth Borne during his wishes this Sunday, December 31.
All at a time when rumors of a reshuffle are agitating the political world, especially since the Council of Ministers scheduled for Wednesday, January 3 has been postponed to the following week. In the meantime, we can plan on the departure of the Prime Minister, and the question of her succession.
“Emmanuel Macron decides everything”
Beforehand, it is necessary to define the mission that the new head of government would have. Élisabeth Borne “has fulfilled the roadmap set for her by the president” and there is “not much left in the pipeline”, notes Matthieu Croissandeau, political columnist on BFMTV.
The latter cites the “end-of-life bill”, a “decision to be made on the universal national service”, which could be generalized and “some ambitions for Education…”
Next comes the topic of “profile”. Who will hold executive power alongside the President of the Republic? A simple collaborator or a heavyweight with political autonomy?
Nothing is certain, except that “in practice”, “Emmanuel Macron decides everything”, even if the Prime Minister is supposed to “determine and lead the nation’s policy”, recalls Matthieu Croissandeau, thus referring to the Constitution.
“Signal to the left wing” or continuation of the “full right turn”?
Another question: will the casting be influenced by the majority, of which the Prime Minister is the leader. This has only been “relative” since 2022, which can give the government headaches in successfully passing its texts. But, above all, it finds itself weakened, after an immigration bill which created divisions within it, with almost a quarter of the presidential camp refusing to vote for the immigration bill last month, due to a copy largely hardened under pressure from the right.
Therefore, “will the President of the Republic want to send a signal to [son] left wing? Or, will he continue his turn to the right, which he began since his arrival at the Élysée?” asks Matthieu Croissandeau.
It also remains to be seen whether Emmanuel Macron will wish to “create a surprise or not”. Could we see faces unknown to the French, like those of Édouard Philippe and Jean Castex during their respective appointments as Prime Minister?
Darmanin offside, Le Maire would “see well there”
So many unknowns which sum up the difficult equation around Matignon. It is even more so in view of the macronie squad, which lacks bench depth. What about his two leaders in government, Gérald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior, and his counterpart in the Economy, Bruno Le Maire?
The first had seen its hopes dashed during the previous reshuffle last summer. For the moment, it “is burnt”, according to Matthieu Croissandeau, due to the immigration law which has weakened it with in particular the adoption of a motion to reject the first reading of the text. As for the boss of Bercy, he “could see himself” as head of government, “even if he says the opposite”.
The Lecornu and Béchu possibilities
In the casting, there are “outsiders”, adds our editorialist, who mentions Sébastien Lecornu, “whose name comes up a lot”. Close to Emmanuel Macron, the Minister of the Armed Forces has a “very political profile” and presents an “advantage”: being completely unknown to the French, his appointment would imply a “form of novelty”.
“And then, in the same vein, there is his colleague from the Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, close to Édouard Philippe whose name is also circulating,” adds Matthieu Croissandeau. Which also mentions the possibility that the elected official is “very very loyal” to the head of state like the former Minister of Agriculture Julien Denormandie.
He could also come from the Les Républicains party, if a government agreement was signed with the right, but given the “reliability they have demonstrated on pension reform and on the immigration law, it is difficult to see how all this could be pinned,” estimates Matthieu Croissandeau. Last two options: a profile from civil society. Or simply a continuation of Élisabeth Borne.