Tour debates: Does Hindley become Vingegaard’s main rival? Will Pogacar gain momentum?

Does Hindley become Vingegaard’s main rival?

Julien Chesnais: Since he is the only one to remain in front of the favorite of the Tour, and that Tadej Pogacar has returned to mortals, at least for the time of this 5th stage, it may be tempting to think so. After all, Jai Hindley has already won a Grand Tour, the Giro last year, and nothing says yet that he doesn’t have the makings of a yellow jersey, this Tour de France being only his first .

He is a danger that “Vigo”, and others, may have underestimated by letting him take the breakaway on the road to Laruns. But the Dane seems to me so above the lot that I don’t see anyone standing up to him at the end of the three weeks. Hindley’s 47-second lead can be gone in the space of a kilometer, tomorrow on the final slopes of Cauterets-Cambasque.

Main rival, so I would say no. But main ally, no doubt. Jai Hindley fulfilled a childhood dream by donning his first yellow jersey. He will defend it at all costs, and the weight of the race will therefore also rest on the Bora-Hansgrohe, not only on the Jumbo-Visma. The position is ideal for Vingegaard. He is on pole for the overall victory but remains free from the obligations and pressure inherent in the yellow jersey. The longer Hindley’s reign, the better for Vingegaard. It’s not something you would say of a main rival.

Simon Farvacque: I won’t go so far as to make Jai Hindley the new No. 1 challenger, to stand up to a defending champion as dashing as Jonas Vingegaard. Tadej Pogacar retains in my eyes this status of “main rival” of the Dane, who put a blow to the suspense this Wednesday. I therefore generally agree with Julien’s remarks, but insisting all the same on the pedigree of the leader of Bora-Hansgrohe.

He has very rarely faced Vingegaard in the high mountains and the two men are taking part in their first Grand Tour together, hence the difference in level – admittedly obvious by the yardstick of the Dauphiné – difficult to estimate. Second in the Giro 2020 to everyone’s surprise, the Australian has since taken a step forward, with this famous Tour of Italy 2022 in his bag.

Hindley does not fall into the category of only “good” riders to whom the yellow jersey is left without danger. Especially since his team looks great, with an Emanuel Buchmann who also achieved a good deal at Laruns and finds himself 4th overall… as he was at the finish of the Tour de France, in 2019.

Can Pogacar gain momentum?

Simon Farvacque: We can hope for the suspense. Even for Tadej Pogacar, approaching the Tour de France without a preparation race other than his national championships is a problem. The 24-year-old Slovenian is probably suffering from the lack of competition due to his wrist injury, which occurred during Liège-Bastogne-Liège on April 23. We can easily imagine him finding his rhythm, over the stages.

Especially since Pogacar knows how to finish strong in the Grand Tour. His unforgettable putsch of the Planche des Belles Filles attested to this in 2020, a year after a Vuelta during which he had won the podium by winning a mountain stage the day before the finish. The Tour 2022 escapes the rule, but he ran it in such a disorderly way, starting from the Granon stage, that it seems inconclusive in this sense. The UAE Emirates frontman might just get a little stronger every day. But how long will it take before becoming the carnivorous “Pogi” that we know? By then, Vingegaard may have put him out of harm’s way.

Julien Chesnais: This Pyrenean stage was the first test for a Pogacar in search of certainty. He is missed. In the Basque Country, in line with the 2022 Tour, the Slovenian seemed to be playing in the same court as his rival. But Marie Blanque shattered this balance of power, the Slovenian suddenly falling from one floor. “Pogi” remains the one who best limited the damage to the Dane. But losing 38 seconds – it was his delay at the top – in a single kilometer of ascent is a pill that will be hard for him to swallow.

Because this club blow cannot take refuge behind the hypothesis of a day without, as was the case at Granon last year. Vingegaard only placed one attack, Pogacar remained seated in his saddle, and the match was already over. The two heavyweights in the peloton suddenly no longer fight in the same category and the Slovenian must necessarily fear the next rounds, although he is not the type to run away from the fight, even badly started.

Pogacar can quite improve over the days, as Simon explained. But the signal sent on Wednesday worries me enough. This playground was more that of “Pogi” than “Vigo”, by their respective qualities. I find it hard to imagine it ramping up to the point of being able to reverse the trend.

Will Vingegaard drive the point home in Cauterets-Cambasque?

Julien Chesnais: The land lends itself well. The final climb of the 6th stage, with its final portion of 4km at almost 10%, offers a great opportunity to assert your power when you are the boss. Vingegaard’s display in Marie Blanque grants him proof that he is above others, including Pogacar. So as much to enjoy its current margin to thicken, from Thursday, its mattress in a comfortable way. Strike the iron while it is still hot. And Jumbo-Visma knows it better than anyone, since its management strategy in 2020 undoubtedly deprived Primoz Roglic of final success, overthrown at the last moment by Tadej Pogacar when he seemed the strongest until then.

However, I can’t imagine Jumbo-Visma padlocking the race to play for the stage victory on Thursday. For the symbol, it is obviously tastier to match a coup de force with a beautiful photo with your arms in the air on the finish line. But it would be going to a lot of trouble for 10” of bonuses. The yellow jersey is a weight they don’t have to bear, not yet, and they would be wrong not to save strength for the future. In fact, the events of Wednesday make me believe in the chances of the breakaway on this 6th stage. Hindley has no interest in offering Vingegaard bonuses. The others know that they have no chance, on a regular basis, against the Dane. And the latter can drive the point home without having to raise his arms. Who will want to ride behind the fugitives?

Simon Farvacque : It would be in their interest to do so, for the reason mentioned in the previous part of our discussions. Pogacar has his head under water, pushing it before he regains some brilliance would be a good idea. What’s more, Jumbo-Visma has not yet won a stage on this Tour de France 2023. Jonas Vingegaard could remedy this on Thursday, while confirming that he is the strong man of this 110th edition, the symbolic dimension of a success on the first arrival at the top as a bonus.

This is why I imagine the Yellow and Blacks locking the race, ensuring that the breakaway is not too imposing, with a Wout van Aert who helps to filter the candidates for the getaway, to prove that everyone is pulling in the same meaning within its formation. The ideal situation for her? A group of less than ten runners “easy” to control and picked up halfway up the slope, in Cauterets-Cambasque, just before the terrible final portion in which Vingegaard will try to fly away. On what he showed on Wednesday, he has a good chance of achieving it.