About two weeks ago, Eduardo Bolsonaro posted a picture on Twitter. The 37-year-old has more than two million followers there, which is partly because he is one of the sons of right-wing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, but also because Eduardo Bolsonaro knows exactly what his followers expect from him: Hau -on it-tweets.
And so he just put this picture online: It shows South America, Brazil on the right, large and colored yellow like the national flag, next to it the neighbors in colourwith small asterisks for the capitals, but also several communist hammer and sickle symbols hovering over Argentina, as well as Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela and also Colombia.
In fact, just a few hours earlier, Gustavo Petro had won the elections there, becoming the first decidedly left-wing head of state in his country’s history. His victory came just months after Gabriel Boric, a young and tattooed former student leader, took office in Chile, and about a year after former village schoolteacher and trade unionist Pedro Castillo took office in Peru. South America has swung back to the left in recent years, a trend that could continue in October when elections are held in Brazil.
This fills some with great concern, while others have great hopes. In the end, however, both sides make it one thing above all: much too easy. As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
right scaremongering
First of all, of course, you have to say that the fears and, above all, the scaremongering are unfounded. Even if the son of the right-wing Brazilian president likes to put it that way, the new left-wing governments in South America are far from being communist. Apart from Venezuela, they are also democratically elected, in fair and free elections, and internationally recognized. That alone gives reason for hope.
At the same time, however, “left” is also a broad term today and does not mean a throwback to the times of Che Guevara and the guerrilla movements of yore. Of course, there are basic positions shared by the new left-wing heads of state, but there are also enormous differences: Chile’s President Boric is in favor of abortion, while Peru’s head of state Castillo is against it. In Colombia, the new government was also elected to office because it promised to do more to protect the environment. In Argentina, on the other hand, the exploitation of natural resources is relatively ruthless. So there is no such thing as “the” new South American left, and it remains to be seen how much governments will really work together in the future.
This is one of the significant differences from the last major shift to the left in the region. Back then, in the early 2000s, there were already a number of left-wing governments in South America. Many of them are still legendary today, also because people associate them with golden times. Driven by China’s increased demand for raw materials, world market prices for soy, wheat, corn, meat, metals, gas and oil exploded in the early years of the new millennium. The countries of South America had a lot to offer of all that, all of a sudden it flooded the coffers with money. Parts disappeared into the pockets of corrupt politicians, but a lot was also put into social programs, into schools, new hospitals or apartments. Many therefore dreamed of a new, bright future.
But this never came. When commodity prices started falling again, inflation and poverty rose. If the situation was already difficult before the pandemic, it is catastrophic today. Millions of people have nothing to eat or no roof over their heads, which is also why so many have voted for left-wing governments in recent years: They hope for more social justice, but above all for help. But even if the governments are of good will, their options are extremely limited, unlike in the past. A commodity boom like in the noughties is not in sight, instead of golden ones, the new left-wing governments in South America are expecting extremely hard years.
For this reason alone one should be careful with promises of salvation. Because they will most likely be disappointed in the end, and the question is what comes next. Populist anti-politicians are already rallying supporters in the region, men like Jair Bolsonaro, but also anarcho-capitalists like Argentinian Javier Milei, who wants to abolish the central bank, as well as gun restrictions and abortion rights. The more the left-wing government in Argentina disintegrates, the better its chances in next year’s elections. The danger is that a wave of anti-politicians could follow the shift to the left. And that would really be a cause for concern.