“Today we are opening a new chapter,” says CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak when it is all over. The district chairmen of the party met in a Berlin hotel and talked for more than four hours about the disaster in the federal elections. Then Armin Laschet let them vote by show of hands. And almost everyone has spoken out in favor of a member survey about the next party leader.
The basis that felt passed over when Laschet was elected CDU chairman, but above all when he became a candidate for chancellor – it is now allowed to have a say. The presidium and the federal board would discuss the further procedure on Tuesday, says Ziemiak. But one thing is already clear: The vote of the district chairmen was so “overwhelming” that at least from his point of view there was “no more doubt” that there will now be a member survey.
That is actually a turning point in the history of the CDU. So far, only the party congress has decided who will be chairman or chairman. Now the approximately 400,000 members can also have a say. And de facto, they will not only have a say now, they will decide the matter. Formally, the party congress continues to elect the chairman, but the party congress delegates will not be able to ignore the result of an upstream member survey. Whoever wins the poll will become party leader.
36 percent for Merz
The most promising candidate in such a member survey is still ex-Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz, but the foreign politician Norbert Röttgen has caught up, report district chairmen. The other three possible candidates – so far no one has officially applied – are given little chance.
There is no survey among the CDU members. A survey by the Infratest Dimap institute among Union supporters revealed the following order when asked who is most likely to be the CDU leader: Merz 36 percent, Röttgen 25 percent, Health Minister Jens Spahn 14 percent, head of the economic wing Carsten Linnemann nine percent and Union faction leader Ralph Brinkhaus six percent.
Actually the conference of district chairmen on Saturday had nothing to decide, their vote is only an “opinion picture”. But the legitimation of the party leadership has been eroded to such an extent that it will have no choice but to actually decide on the membership survey on Tuesday. Merz and Röttgen asked the CDU leaders to do so on Saturday.
He could “understand” the decision of the district chairperson and welcome the fact that the members should become “part of the new beginning” of the CDU in this way, explained Röttgen. The presidium and board of directors would have to “respect that”. Merz tweeted that it was “right and necessary” to “involve the district chairperson in the opinion-forming process”. The presidium and board of directors should “follow the clear vote” on Tuesday and “initiate” a member survey.
But what’s next now? It is certain that the CDU leadership will decide on the member survey on Tuesday. However, many details are still open: Should there also be regional conferences before the survey, at which the candidates can introduce themselves? How should the members vote? A pure online vote will hardly be possible in practice, the average age of CDU members is a good 60 years. A postal vote is expensive and slow – especially if a runoff election is also necessary. And voting in the district offices is hardly feasible in territorial states with few CDU members. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, some members would have to travel more than 50 kilometers.
It is also still unclear when the party congress will take place at which the result of the member survey will be confirmed – and at which the rest of the CDU leadership will be re-elected. A date in December would be very sporty, but the CDU would have quickly completed its overdue repositioning. At a party congress in January, the new beginning would be a long time coming, there would be no time constraints. Carsten Linnemann had called for a party conference in December. On Saturday, however, it was said that a party conference in January was more likely.
After the conference of district chairmen, one thing is already finally clear: There will be no dual leadership in the CDU – as some Christian Democrats have brought into play. Incidentally, only twelve percent of the 326 district chairpersons are women.
What is also certain is that the member survey will not pacify the dispute over the future course of the party. Regardless of whether Merz, Röttgen or someone else – a boss is not in sight – will win, the most important question will still have to be clarified: What does the CDU stand for? After 16 years in government, many party members can no longer give an answer.
General Secretary Ziemiak was nevertheless satisfied on Saturday. In any case, he announced: “Today is the first day of the renewal of the CDU.”