Tigray conflict in Ethiopia: ceasefire – until the end of the harvest season

For months, Ethiopia cracked down on the rebels in Tigray, and the humanitarian situation became more and more dramatic. A ceasefire has now been announced. Probably also because of the growing international pressure.

Videos circulating on social networks are supposed to show cheers on the streets in Tigray. People waving flags of the so-called TPLF People’s Liberation Front. It has apparently taken back control of the provincial capital Mekelle after the Ethiopian government announced a ceasefire that evening.

The head of the interim administration in Tigray told the AP news agency that he saw no alternative but to end the fighting. “We asked the central government to do so on behalf of Tigray and all peace-loving people,” said Abraham Belay. For reasons of humanity and to prevent major damage, the population needs a break. The ceasefire is expected to last until the end of the harvest season in September.

In Tigray, more and more people had recently been starving. Aid deliveries often did not get through because the roads were blocked. The hope is to be able to plant in time now. “We are currently in the rainy season,” explains Belay. “Last year locusts destroyed a large part of the harvest. The rest could not be harvested because of the war. If nothing could be grown this time either, the situation would be devastating.”

Air raids by the army recently

A few days ago the Ethiopian army had launched an air raid on a market in Tigray. About 50 people were killed and dozen injured. In total, thousands have been killed in the conflict. The fighting continued after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared late last year that the TPLF had been defeated.

An adviser to the People’s Liberation Front, the former Ethiopian ambassador to Germany Fesseha Tessema, told the BBC that the army had now withdrawn from Tigray. “In the past few days the Ethiopian army has been completely defeated by the TPLF. There is not a single soldier in the army in Tigray,” said Tessema.

It is unclear how quickly the situation will ease

It is difficult to check how far such statements are true. What is certain is that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has recently been under increasing international pressure. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate gambled away his reputation with the tough approach in Tigray. On the side of the army, soldiers from neighboring Eritrea and troops from the Amhara region bordering Tigray also fought there.

Because they have not yet withdrawn, there can be no peace, explains Tessema. The war continues “until they too are expelled and finally leave Tigray”.

UN Secretary General António Guterres said that after talking to Abiy he was hopeful that the hostilities would come to an end. But whether the situation actually eases will now depend on how the TPLF and the other troops in the region proceed.