The monitoring indicators maintained in the country show an increase in the number of medical procedures and emergency visits for suspicion of Covid-19, without reaching alarming levels.
The Covid-19 is talking about him again. A few weeks after the health authorities eased the pandemic surveillance system, France is facing “an epidemic recovery”says epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea, Thursday, August 10, in The Parisian. The virus is once again on the list of the 10 most frequently observed pathologies in the SOS Médecins network. Franceinfo takes stock of the situation, which is however not a cause for concern.
1What is the magnitude of this rebound?
From July 31 to August 6, 920 emergency visits for suspected Covid-19, of all ages, were recorded, compared to 702 a week earlier, an increase of 31%, according to data from Public health France. The regions most affected by this increase are Pays de la Loire (+210%), Normandy (+71%) and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (+67%). However, these numbers remain “moderate”, underlines the agency. For comparison, the weekly total was over 4,000 at the end of July 2022, or even in December 2022.
On the side of SOS Doctors, “medical acts for suspected Covid-19 are on the rise in all age groups”adds Public health France. The increase is 84% over one week, with 1,512 acts signed at the beginning of August, against 822 at the end of July. New Aquitaine is the most affected by this dynamic, with an increase of 284%.
Knowing that she is “under estimated”, the incidence fell in one week from 11 cases recorded per 100,000 inhabitants to 19, adds researcher Mircea Sofonea. These indicators are part of the “rare objective elements” which still make it possible to follow the epidemic, he laments. “Today we have roughly the same visibility of the virus as before the first confinement! We know that it is circulating, that there are pockets of contamination, but it is impossible, with current means, to know its exact magnitude. Since the end of June, personal screening data from the SI-DEP system has no longer been used, pursuant to the law putting an end to exceptional health measures, as announced Public health France.
2How can we explain this increase?
One of the hypotheses put forward is the appearance of a new dominant variant, called EG.5 or Eris. This newcomer and its sub-lineages were added to the list of variants on Wednesday “to be continued” by theWorld Health Organization (WHO). Eris represents a third of infections sequenced in France, according to the international database Gisaid. He “is part of the large family of Omicron sub-lineages”with a mutation “which allows him to escape the antibodies a little more”asserts to West France the head of the National Reference Center for Respiratory Viruses, Etienne Simon-Lorière. “To dominate in turn, the new variants must be more transmissible than the previous ones and this seems to be happening again with Eris”agrees epidemiologist Antoine Flahault with The Dispatch.
The summer holidays and their share of reunions and gatherings can also play a role in this slight summer revival. In the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, the Bayonne Festivals thus led to a test rush, as France 3 Nouvelle-Aquitaine reported. At national scale, “the fact that the weather was bad, with living a little in community inside, favored the spread”also advances the emergency doctor Gérald Kierzek, on France 2.
Finally, the population’s immune decline adds to this fertile ground for a rebound. “Clearly, the effectiveness of the vaccine wanes over time and therefore protects less well”underlines the epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea.
3Should we be worried about it?
Although difficult to assess, the current epidemic situation remains under control, with no significant impact on hospital services, particularly in intensive care. The Eris variant poses a public health risk “weak”according to the WHO, which did not classify it among the variants “worrying”. “There are no worrying indicators in terms of symptoms or virulence”abounds the researcher Etienne Simon-Lorière.
However, “Covid has taught us that we should not look at it immediately”insists Mircea Sofonea. “Let’s project ourselves on the fall: if it continues to gain ground, if epidemics of influenza and bronchiolitis are added, the repercussion on the hospital will be real”, he warns. The epidemiologist calls above all for “reinstate a more reactive surveillance system” In France.
His colleague Antoine Flahault is also campaigning in this direction and recalls the issue of protecting vulnerable people, whether they are elderly or immunocompromised. “It is advisable at home to carry out tests in order to institute, in the event of positivity, an early antiviral treatment”, he points out in Le Figaro. “Paxlovid or Remdesivir are underused in France and many serious forms and deaths in these vulnerable people would be avoidable if they had better access to these effective drugs at home.”