Tim J. Brown is a climatologist and director of the Western Regional Climate Center at Desert Research Institute (DRI), based in Reno (Nevada) in the United States. In this interview, he discusses the causes of the “Post Fire”, the first fire of the season. He also explains how states, notably California, are trying to prevent them and how things could change with global warming.
Can you tell us more about the causes of the California fire?
The official cause of the fire remains under investigation. One of the main drivers of the fire was weather conditions: strong wind gusts and low relative humidity. These factors dry out the vegetation and allow the fire to spread quickly. Considering the history of fires in California, however, the current size of the fire is not unusually large.
Is there a way to prevent or predict these fires? What is the State of California doing?
California has wildfire awareness and prevention programs in place, but there will still be fires in the state, primarily due to human activities (accidental and criminal), but also due to lightning. The average number of fires in the state between 2018 and 2022 was 7,572. California and the western United States have experienced human-caused and lightning-related fires for millennia; fires in California are therefore considered common and natural. Many efforts have been made to predict fire potential even though precise prediction of time and location is not possible. But fire potential indicators are used for situational awareness. These indicators are found in weather and fire danger forecasts, as well as risk maps generated based on historical fires, vegetation conditions and population.
Finally, what can we expect for the rest of the season? What are the biggest fears?
Official forecasts for significant wildfire risk in California currently point to a year of normal activity due to winter and spring snow and rain, but a hot summer that quickly dries out vegetation could easily increase the risk in certain places. Normal potential does not mean that there are no fires and that fairly large fires may still occur, but that firefighting resources will not be overstretched. These outlooks are updated at the start of each month, so it will be interesting to see if the charts change much as July begins.
Can you explain what the AWE + Wildfire Summit is taking place in August in Las Vegas?
AWE+Wildfire is a global initiative of the DRI which stands for air, water and earth and reflects the main areas of interest of applied environmental research at the DRI. It is also an acronym for Adaptable World Environment, which aims to create resilient and adaptable communities that can better absorb the effects of climate change. The summit will focus on the devastating impact of wildfires and serve as a forum to determine how people and organizations from the public and private sectors can better collaborate to create and support wildfire adaptability and resilience in communities .