Latent war or blitzkrieg? “Russian military vehicles, including armored vehicles, violated the border in the regions of Chernigiv (north, Belarusian border), Sumy (northeast, Russian border), Lugansk and Kharkiv (east, Russian border)”, announced Ukrainian border guards in a statement this Thursday morning. “Ukrainian forces are fighting fiercely. The enemy has suffered significant losses which will be even greater,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who announced that he had severed diplomatic ties with Russia.
It was barely 3 a.m. in France when Vladimir Putin announced on Russian television “a special military operation”. In the aftermath, the first bombs fell on Ukraine before Russian military troops crossed the border and invaded neighboring areas.
“In the short and medium term, sanctions would not be effective in impressing Vladimir Putin’s regime,” analyzes Johanna Möhring, researcher at the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS) at the University of Bonn. But what are David’s weapons against Goliath?
On the front of the Ukrainian army, what are the military means?
The comparison is obviously clearly unbalanced between Kyiv and Moscow militarily. Ukraine’s main problem is the absence of an air defense, which will open the way to Russian strikes everywhere, which can annihilate the reinforcement of Ukrainian combat units on the ground. The other major Ukrainian concern is the extreme length of the front to be held.
Didn’t the war finally start eight years ago? Are there still reserves of men?
Absoutely. But it had been static and inexpensive in lives since 2015. With the adoption in the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday evening by a large majority of the introduction of the national state of emergency, reservists between the ages of 18 and 60 can now be mobilized .
Can we speak of a surprise attack?
Since the massive concentration of troops on the borders of Ukraine, in the north in Russia and Belarus, in the east and in the south, which dates in part from 2021, this attack was a possibility. We should also not forget Crimea, which has been in Russian hands since 2014. It constitutes an additional naval and land base in the south.
For the past few days, two thirds of the troops have been less than 50 km from the borders of Ukraine, half of which are “tactically deployed”. This state of advanced readiness could not be maintained indefinitely: it clearly announced an attack. Another clue pointed in the same direction: military field hospitals, blood banks, and equipment repair teams had also been deployed.
How long can the Russian operation last? Was it sufficiently anticipated?
It depends on the intensity of the fights, but I would say it can last a long time. It all really depends on the type of intervention planned. Does Russia want to create a permanent state of insecurity? Push the dividing line westward? Drop the government and walk away?
I also think the extent of Russian losses may play a role. If the Ukrainian army could inflict considerable losses, it would put Vladimir Putin’s operation in question. If it is a question of keeping the tension on the Ukrainian political authorities without great human losses on the Russian side then Moscow could hold out for a long time. And then, there is always the possibility of a scenario with the quick takeover of Kiev to install a pro-Russian government there.
Regarding anticipation, there is no doubt: the Russians had premeditated the attack and prepared everything accordingly.
Could the Ukrainian army capitulate?
Yes, that is a possibility. If, for example, Russian military successes are too quick and obvious, or if the civilian population is massively targeted. But it is also possible that the Russian attacks will transform this conflict into a struggle for the national survival of Ukraine. In this case, she could try to inflict a steady rhythm of losses on the Russians by a defense in depth, a strategy of attrition.
What about nuclear weapons? Could it be used?
The nuclear weapon is intended not to be used, it is integrated into the military system above all to deter the adversary. On the Russian side, they wield it regionally and globally, since they have intermediate-range and transcontinental-range nuclear weapons. This is a way for them to try to dissuade other countries from getting involved alongside Ukraine.
But Vladimir Putin’s remarks this morning addressed to those “who would try to interfere with us (…) must know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead to consequences that you have never known before”, divide the experts . Some believe that Russia could end up using nuclear weapons while others analyze the latest signals as going rather towards a reinforcement of other non-nuclear means since the Russian armed forces are in better shape. The ambiguity is in fact very real: overt aggressiveness leaves room for doubt and already has very real effects.