“The victory of a candidate outside the system is quite probable,” says journalist Laetitia Krupa

Forty years after Coluche’s aborted presidential candidacy, could a candidate “outside the system” succeed Emmanuel Macron in 2022? For Laëtitia Krupa, independent political journalist, the scenario is highly plausible. In The temptation of the clown, which appears this Thursday by Buchet Chastel editions, she explains that France could see the emergence of a personality who has never been in politics, like Donald Trump in the United States. Eric Zemmour, Jean-Marie Bigard, Michel Onfray, Didier Raoult, Eric Drouet… The author – who also examines more unexpected profiles – believes that the potential candidates are numerous… and the favorable situation to carry one of them at the Elysee.

You publish this Thursday “The Temptation of the Clown” on the risk of an unexpected candidacy for the presidential election. Why did you write this book?

In one article published in The world one year ago, an Elysée adviser explained that a candidate outside the system could win the presidential election of 2022. His hypothesis seemed very serious, so I decided to launch an investigation and I realized that indeed, it was is quite likely. Coronavirus, economic and social crises, mistrust of the elites, the angry power of social networks… So many signals for a clown to seek the supreme office. Distrust of elites and the crisis of representative democracy have rekindled the anger of voters, who believe that traditional policies are no longer legitimate.

For this book, I interviewed about fifty experts: sociologists, political scientists, politicians, shadow advisers, journalists, historians…. Everyone has a presentiment of seeing a clown on the starting line of the 2022 presidential election. I think this scenario is 80% plausible.

How do you characterize a “clown”? What is the concept ?

Be careful, this is not a derogatory term. The word has been around for a long time and comes from politico-media jargon, I did not invent it. The BBC nicknamed Boris Johnson “Bojo the Clown”. This term is used to designate a “surprise” candidate, who comes out of the hat, that nobody expected. The subversive candidate, outside the system, who does not belong to the political world.

If we look abroad, many of these outsiders come from the world of cinema or television. This is the case of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who is a comedian, of Donald Trump, a former reality TV star, or even of Beppe Grillo, an Italian comedian who launched, in 2009, the 5-Star Movement.

With less than a year of the presidential election, no clown has yet emerged in France. Michel Onfray, Cyril Hanouna or Jean-Marie Bigard said they would not show up …

In my book, I test ten personalities who, potentially, can stand in the popular vote, like Marion Cotillard or Juliette Binoche. It is true that if we refer to the personalities you have just cited, we already have the answer … But these are only statements. In politics, you can’t trust anyone, especially not a year away from the first round. Nothing says they will keep their word.

I am firmly convinced that a candidate outside the system can come forward at the last minute. This is what happened in Ukraine: Volodymyr Zelensky revealed himself three months before the election. In France, you can submit your candidacy and the 500 signatures up to six weeks before the first round. The clown has quite the possibility of getting out of the hat in February, for example, to avoid the pitfalls that could discredit his candidacy. He can campaign on social media and dispense with traditional media. And mayors could give their signature to a personality they consider capable of putting a kick in the political anthill.

But can such a candidate really be elected by submitting his candidacy just a few months before the first round, as you describe?

Who tells you that the candidate has not already started his campaign? Today there are spaces that escape the caudine forks of our old analysis grids and polls, especially on the Internet. Signal private messaging, for example, allows you to communicate in an encrypted and secure manner. In 2016, Donald Trump’s victory brought about an America that no one would have suspected. Why would France be exempt from this scenario?

Didn’t Donald Trump “vaccinate” democracies against red noses?

The poison that Trump has inoculated into our democracies continues to spread. I think we will have several waves of clowns. The premiere started in Italy with Berlusconi [en 1994]. In 2013, it was actor Beppe Grillo who revealed himself. Italy has been under populism for fifteen years. Then we had the Trump tsunami.

According to the numerous polls published for several months, the most plausible scenario is that of a duel between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in the second round. What do you think ?

I do not believe it at all. We must not get caught up in this scenario, which is played out by politicians, the media and the polls. It is put forward because the offer of the opposition parties is bloated and is not stabilized. The clown can arrive at the last moment and make a score in the first round which reshuffles all the cards of the election. The predictions of the presidential elections are often thwarted.

In your book, you quote Stéphane Séjourné, a close advisor to Emmanuel Macron, who believes that Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen are holding back the possibility of the clown …

They are receptacles of anger. But no one is saying that voters could not prefer an apolitical candidate. There is such mistrust that voters could vote for a candidate who they think looks like them.

Who would be the voters of the clown?

It is very difficult to know. Everyone could want to vote for him, it is not a question of stigmatizing a part of the population. For example, conspiracy is winning over both the popular classes and the CSP +. It is a very symptomatic phenomenon of the time: society is fragmented and the social groups we used to, the popular classes as opposed to the elites, no longer exist. These are references that, in my opinion, have been erased by social networks and the digital revolution. For example, gamers are a new social typology. The 2022 poll may redefine social categories in France.

In addition, the polarization of political life no longer exists, and the parties are in full disintegration. Candidates could thus land without the label of a party.