On May 16, 2021, in Rotterdam, Barbara Pravi, France’s representative at Eurovision Song Contest, presents the ballot drawn by lot ensuring her a passage in the second half of the final. – Thibaud Duquenne
- Twenty-six countries are participating in the Eurovision 2021 final, broadcast live on France 2 on Saturday from 9 p.m.
- The French Barbara Pravi will be the twentieth to appear on stage. Cyprus will open and San Marino will close the competition.
- The statistics seem to show that a passage in the second half of a show is more favorable in the race for victory and that it is better not to be the second artist to pass on stage.
The running order of the Eurovision Song Contest is to the competition what the announcement of the list of 22 is to the French team. It falls in the night from Thursday to Friday preceding the big show on Saturday. If it was once the result of a draw, since 2013 it has been concocted by the broadcaster – this year the Dutch channel AVROTROS – and the organizers who try to compose the best possible conductor by alternating ballads and up-tempo songs. . Delegations and fans impatiently await it, then dissect it and try to learn from it. The exercise balances between statistical analysis and superstition. Explanations.
Why does everyone want to advance to the second half of the final?
Apart from the host country which draws lots for its order of passage ahead of the event – this year, fate has decided to place the Dutchman Jeangu Macrooy in 23rd position – all the others are subject to the goodwill of the organization. Chance still plays a role in this since each participant draws lots to find out whether they will pass in the first half (from the first to the thirteenth position) or in the second half of the final (between places 14 and 26). . And all hope to pass in the second part. Why ? Because since the introduction of the semi-finals in 2008, eight of the winners have occurred between 17th and 24th place, against 4 between 10th and 12th. The statistics therefore plead in favor of those who come later in the evening.
What is the order of passage of France?
Barbara Pravi will be the 20th to take the stage with here. “It’s a lucky number for us”, rejoices Alexandra Redde-Amiel, the head of the French delegation, confident that the artist wanted to move to 19th, 20th or 21st position. The most surprising thing, however, is that she will perform after the group Go_A, which represents Ukraine, and made a strong impression in Tuesday’s semi-final. These serious outsiders will therefore precede the one who is one of the favorites for victory. However, the sequence between these two very different pieces guarantees a real contrast: the softness and the intimism of the French proposal are likely to stand out more.
What is the order of passage that everyone wants to avoid?
No one wants to take second place on the stage. Generally, this spot is reserved for a ballad which finds itself locked between two up-tempo songs. The statistics speak for themselves: since 2008, only one artist, Dino Merlin who represented Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been able to find a place in the Top 10. He had finished sixth. On the other hand, seven others finished among the last five and the other four did not do better than fifteenth. This year, Albanian Anxhela Peristeri inherits this ticket. Ironically, his song is called Karma. During the last edition, in 2019, it was another Albanian, Jonida Maliqi, who sang in second and took 17th place in the ranking.
What do I need to know about other stopover orders?
Saturday the competition will be opened by El Diablo, the song of Cyprus, and will close on Adrenalina, which represents San Marino. No wonder that two up-tempo pieces are found at these stations, the competition loving to take place between two festive parentheses. Switzerland and Iceland move to 11th and 12th, two positions perceived as favorable and which agree with their status as favorites. On the other hand, the fact that the Maltese singer, third favorite of the bookmakers, passes in 6, is surprising, especially as she will succeed the Russian Manizha who, too, carries through her song Russian woman, an emancipatory and feminist message. The Italians of Maneskin were particularly varnished: they passed in 24, after the Dutchman Jeangu Macrooy who is not really there to play for the win and before the Swede Tusse who few imagine in the Top 10. Let us recall, however, that the shelling of orders of passage is not an exact science and that, when a song is good, it does not matter what time of the night it is performed.
The running order of the final is as follows:
01. Cyprus
02. Albania
03. Israel
04. Belgium
05. Russia
06. Malta
07. Portugal
08. Serbia
09. Great Britain
10. Greece
11. Switzerland
12. Iceland
13. Spain
14. Moldova
15. Germany
16. Finland
17. Bulgaria
18. Lithuania
19. Ukraine
20. France
21. Azerbaijan
22. Norway
23. Netherlands
24. Italy
25. Sweden
26. San Marino