Are we on the “right path” to regain a “normal life” after almost a year and a half of health crisis? In any case, this is what the Prime Minister said on Tuesday on the sidelines of an official trip. Problem: the same Jean Castex had declared on May 10 last more or less the same thing. “I say it in the clearest way: we are finally in the process of emerging sustainably from this health crisis”, he was delighted … just a few weeks before the summer “wave”. Therefore optimism is allowed?
If we trust the numbers, the lights are green. After having jumped in July, the incidence has been declining since mid-August. In Ile-de-France, there are now 167 new cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants. Down almost 8% in one week. And all the indicators, including hospital, are taking the same path: in the region, hospital admissions have fallen by 12%, those in intensive care by 35%. “There is a notable drop but we remain at a relatively high level of viral circulation in the non-vaccinated and to a lesser extent in those who are also vaccinated”, qualifies the director of the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health, Laurent Chambaud. In mid-June, for example, in the Paris basin, the incidence rate was seven times lower than at present.
Delta and vaccination
If vaccination has increased strongly throughout the summer – the number of fully vaccinated Ile-de-France residents almost doubled between early July and late August – could the start of the school year put a brake on health improvement? In a note given to the government on August 20, the scientific council warned against the risk of “heavy traffic”, especially among children under 12, for whom vaccination is not authorized. “We talk a lot about the start of the school year but there is also a lot of mixing in the summer, we go out more, we see more people,” assures epidemiologist Pascal Crépey. If we refer to last year, we had not observed a sharp rise in cases after the start of the school year. We were already on an upward slope but there was no acceleration. “
Could the Delta variant, now largely dominant and much more contagious, especially among the youngest, be a game-changer? Between the start of last year and that of this year, the incidence rate has almost tripled (from 61 to 154) for the 0-19 age group. As for vaccination, if it is progressing rapidly among adolescents – half of young Ile-de-France residents have received a dose, a third is fully vaccinated – it remains below the general average. A delay that the health authorities hope to fill by organizing as soon as the start of the vaccination operations in middle and high schools. Another uncertainty: the impact of seasonality. “Me, I will be more likely to be worried by the arrival of autumn than by the start of the school year,” says Pascal Crépey. We know that this season favors transmissions even if this is not the only factor. “
If on this point Laurent Chambaud is more divided, the researcher considers “almost impossible” to predict the situation in the coming weeks. “That there is a re-increase, it is a possibility but what it will be necessary to follow, it is if one remains on a tenable plate for the systems of care”, insists there.