analysis
“Girlish” and “pubescent” – even before coalition talks start, Aiwanger and Söder tease each other. In Bavaria, Free Voters and the CSU are fighting for sovereignty over interpretation after the state elections.
It is not yet known who has the better mathematicians in their ranks – but one thing is certain: top politicians from the CSU and Free Voters came to different calculation results the day after the Bavarian state election. Free Voters parliamentary group leader Florian Streibl is certain that his party will get a fourth ministry in the new black-orange coalition: The shift in power in the bourgeois camp must “naturally be reflected in the cabinet”.
His party leader Hubert Aiwanger obviously shares this assessment, but keeps his calculations to himself: “If you calculate what the election results are, then I also believe that everyone can calculate how many ministries we are entitled to.”
CSU General Secretary Martin Huber counters: “A claim for another ministry cannot be derived from the result.” And the CSU chairman Markus Söder emphasizes that “from a mathematical point of view” the Free Voters are not entitled to any further cabinet positions. He also counts the state secretaries, bringing the number to five so far. This means that the coalition partner got more positions in 2018 than necessary: “We were friendly.”
Both parties want to continue to form a coalition with each other, but the day after the election they will engage in a public long-distance duel. The competition for positions has begun.
Discontent among the Christian Socialists
The CSU achieved 37.0 percent in the state election on Sunday – its worst result since 1950. The Free Voters gained 4.2 points, to their record 15.8 percent. The voter migration also shows that the CSU has faced a real challenge with the Free Voters. Around 260,000 people voted for the Free Voters this time, after they had voted for the Christian Socialists in the state elections five years ago. Of the Free Voters, however, only 120,000 went to the CSU.
Even before the party committees meet on Monday morning, it is clear: these numbers are causing dissatisfaction among the Christian Socialists. Well-known CSU politicians are calling for a tougher approach in dealing with the Free Voters. Regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt is pushing for more competition between the two parties. For the CSU honorary chairman Theo Waigel, the “grace period” for the Free Voters is over, CSU vice-president Manfred Weber is calling for stronger demarcation.
Aiwanger is calm. “It’s now up to the CSU to decide what they think of as a distinction from the Free Voters,” he says. “I hope you have fun with it.” He is very surprised that he is being held responsible for the CSU’s poor election result. “I’m not the CSU’s poster troupe.” The Free Voters are an independent force. “I would now recommend that the CSU not appear too girly.”
Söder wants to discuss “fundamental questions”.
Instead of forever licking wounds, the Christian Socialists should start coalition talks with the Free Voters immediately, believes Aiwanger. At the same time, the Free Voters leader makes it clear that he wants to go into the negotiations with a broad heart: “We are the winner of this state election in this Bavarian coalition.”
While the Free Voters want their increase to be understood as confirmation of citizen-oriented politics, according to Söder, the increase has “nothing to do with substance and content”. Rather, the results are a consequence of Aiwanger leaflet affair said Söder after the CSU board meeting. His party wants to continue the current coalition. “But, be careful: serious! I advise everyone to stay on the carpet, not to overestimate one’s self, but to be sensible and to realize the proportions.” And the Prime Minister advises Aiwanger not to “act like puberty”.
According to Söder, the CSU will also discuss “fundamental questions” with the Free Voters in advance – for example their position in the party system. “We will of course have to measure the Free Voters even more closely based on their previous performance.” With regard to Aiwanger’s controversial quote that democracy must be brought back, Söder emphasized: “Since Erding, the Free Voters have changed little by little. That’s why cooperation is also changing.”
Muscle flexing is part of it
Söder and Aiwanger already agree that they want to focus more on migration policy – also in view of the strengthening of the AfD in Bavaria. The Berlin traffic light coalition has completely refused to find a solution to the migration problem, complains the CSU boss. This means that the topic can be exploited more easily. What is necessary is an “actual reversal of the current asylum policy in Germany”.
Aiwanger warns that the issue of migration “cannot be ignored.” Bavaria must “lead the way” here. The Free Voters “didn’t want to be banned from thinking about what we shouldn’t say about refugees and how great we must find all this illegal migration, which citizens see completely differently.”
Dealing with the AfD, dealing with each other: Shortly after the election, the CSU and Free Voters made it clear how they envisioned the coming weeks. And muscle flexing is part of it before coalition negotiations.
But it should now be clear: this time the two partners will not come together as smoothly as in 2018. The showdown between Söder and Aiwanger has only just begun.