The country needs a lot more heavy equipment very quickly to stop a relentless Russian advance in the east. And what is the German chancellor doing? Keeps stoic calm and stays silent.
One of the biggest misunderstandings during his still short term as Chancellor was the idea, anchored in parts of politics and the public, that Olaf Scholz had announced a turning point. In fact, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the chancellor initially only described the reality, and he did so appropriately as a turning point. At the same time, he announced that German policy would be adapted to this new reality. In the short term, this manifested itself in the supply of some readily available weapons to Ukraine. In the long term, it should be reflected in a new security and defense policy backed by 100 billion euros. In the force of the moment, the impression arose, presumably also with Scholz himself, that the chancellor had already achieved a historic achievement.
One has to recall that moment in order to understand the increasingly clear conflict between Scholz and a significant part of the world outside the Chancellery. MPs from the opposition and his own coalition may want to know whether the federal government is finally delivering heavy weapons. The major Russian offensive in the Donbass has apparently begun, and Ukraine is running out of time. But the chancellor gives the impression of great calm. The Chancellorship of the Social Democrat Scholz has reached a crucial point after a very short time. What is at stake domestically is the Scholz method.
From the Chancellor’s perspective, this method has already proven its worth. Scholz experienced the dramatic days at the beginning of the Russian war of aggression in the certainty that he was prepared for anything. Above all, Scholz saw himself as having enough nerves of steel to make all the necessary decisions and he also remained convinced of his minimalist communication style. His recent election victory had strengthened Scholz in his conviction that he knew the needs of the population and the political necessities best. Nothing has changed about that, which now gives rise to two possibilities: Scholz delivers in stoic calm, which the turning point and Russian crimes in Ukraine require. Or he hits a wall in stoic calm.
Ukraine must be able to liberate terrain again, as it did in the Kyiv region
In any case, the chancellor has little time. As a goal he himself stated that Russia should not be allowed to win in Ukraine. The country needs a lot more heavy equipment very quickly to stop a relentless Russian advance in the east. The Bucha horrors have shown that every square meter of Ukrainian soil under Russian control increases the area of horror. Ukraine must be able to liberate terrain again, as it did in the Kyiv region. This will not succeed without a supply of tanks, for example. If, thanks to the massive increase in military aid for Ukraine by the German government, Soviet equipment can be delivered quickly from eastern NATO states, that could potentially make a decisive contribution. And it may make more sense than waiting for German equipment.
So far, however, the chancellor has not considered it necessary to let the public participate in such considerations. He dismisses critics, even mocking them as “boys” and “girls”. That’s a bad sign. The first thing people like to say is that Scholz’s law is never to be offended and never to be hysterical. The turning point has already pushed the Scholz method to its limits.