A week after the offensive ordered by Vladimir Putin, the Russian army seems to be bogged down in Ukraine. Even if they progress in the south and the east of the country, the Russian soldiers have not succeeded in taking Kiev, with a huge convoy which is standing still at the gates of the Ukrainian capital.
Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commander of the American forces in Europe, believes that we see an army “ill-prepared” confronting Ukrainians “galvanized” by President Volodymyr Zelensky, and who are fighting “to defend their country”. But Moscow, which rained a deluge of fire on Kharkiv, in the north, where an airborne force landed overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, seems to be changing strategy. And the situation could “worse” for civilians.
Russia’s advance seems more difficult than anticipated. Is it due to Ukrainian resistance or poor Russian preparation?
It’s a combination of both. Ukrainian forces are outperforming thanks to their leadership and determination. It’s impressive. They have the defensive advantage of fighting on their home turf. They know every village, every town. And there is an effect on morale of fighting to defend one’s country, as we have seen in Afghanistan. The Russian army is clearly underperforming, despite the attacker’s advantage on initiative, timing and targets. She also has a clear superiority in the air and at sea, but not as much on the ground.
What are the main problems of the Russian army?
Many indicators show that it is an army that is poorly prepared, has not been well trained or has discipline problems. We see a lot of broken down or abandoned vehicles, driving around bumper to bumper, like in this convoy near Kiev. That makes them easy targets. And then there is poor morale, with soldiers not knowing where they are going or what their objectives are. The Russians do not take care of their troops like France or the United States. If a soldier is killed, his family receives the equivalent of $100 in compensation.
It all adds up on a battlefield, especially when you’re up against galvanized Ukrainians – and I’ve watched them for eight years, I’ve always been impressed by their tenacity but also by the speed at which they learn, as well as by their technical knowledge.
Supply issues are common during large invasions. Will Russia regroup and adapt?
Yes, they are going to have to reassess the situation and make adjustments. They do not have the choice. But they have fundamental problems. This 60 km convoy, you can’t just turn around and start over. The Ukrainians will try by all means to attack these vulnerable vehicles, even if they lack drones and have limited means in the air.
Can deliveries of Stingers missiles and a few dozen fighters make a real difference to Ukraine’s air defense?
Yes, Stingers are useful against helicopters and drones. For fighters, it’s not just about getting fighter jets. You have to be able to carry out their maintenance, have enough ammunition… There is a whole system to put in place, and I hope they will be operational quickly. And you have to be able to store them on a well-defended base, because the Russians will try to attack them.
According to US intelligence, Vladimir Putin is frustrated by the difficulties encountered. Is there a risk of returning to his usual strategy and making Russian firepower speak?
Absoutely. The situation is likely to get worse. They have already started using cluster weapons and targeting civilian buildings (in Kharkiv, in particular) and will continue. It remains to know the state of their ammunition stocks.
Ukrainian intelligence speculated that a massive attack on Kiev was being prepared, with thousands of airborne troops, with Putin’s ultimate goal of occupying Ukraine or cutting the country into two East-West zones. Is this a possible scenario?
I’m sure they will try but all their attempts to take over airports have ended in failure. Ukraine is a vast country. Troops of 150,000 or 200,000 men seem enormous. But to get an idea, Wembley Stadium, England, can accommodate 100,000 people. And we’re not talking about 200,000 infantry soldiers with machine guns. That includes drivers, everyone. I don’t think they have the ability to take over the whole country.
Ukraine is getting stronger every day with Western help and remains determined. As Napoleon said: “In war, three quarters are moral matters; the balance of real forces is only for another quarter”.
Ukraine asks for a no fly zone, which is currently ruled out by the White House. What are the calculations?
There are three main factors for the US president to consider. First, to enforce a no fly zone, we should have NATO planes in the sky ready to shoot down Russian planes. Second, we would never send our pilots until we had neutralized the enemy anti-aircraft defenses on the ground. This means bombing Russian troops in Ukraine and possibly Russia. And if one of our planes were shot down, we would have to be ready to pick up our pilots, potentially on the sovereign territory of Russia. We have the capacity, but there is great reluctance to avoid a direct war with Russia, the potential invocation of Article 5 of NATO (on collective defence), and a risk of escalation towards a nuclear conflict. But we must remain united and double down on economic and diplomatic pressure. have something similar at the Berlin blockade airlift to bring arms to Ukraine and supply them with the materials they need to fight.
Should we be worried about Putin’s incendiary rhetoric on nuclear power?
It should not be taken lightly. But Russia has been threatening to use nuclear weapons against Sweden, Denmark or Poland for years. Putin has nothing else at his disposal for deterrence. In a (conventional) conflict between NATO and Russia, there would be no comparison.
Is Putin really capable of using nuclear weapons, or is this a bluff as part of the madman theory (crazy theory)?
I believe he is quite capable of it. My hope is that there are enough people around him aware of the disaster this would represent, and that he would listen to them. Otherwise, its legacy (mark in History) would not be to have rebuilt the Russian Empire, as he dreams of it, but to be responsible for the destruction of Russia.